Energy Iran

‘It’s shocking how poorly prepared the administration is’: DOGE gutted major energy personnel who warn the U.S. has lost key insights amid Iran war

By 

Sasha Rogelberg

Reporter

April 5, 2026, 4:21 AM ET

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The State Department, under Secretary Marco Rubio, gutted the Bureau of Energy Resources last summer.Brendan SMIALOWSKI / POOL / AFP—Getty Images

About six months before the first U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the Trump administration gutted the Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR), an 80-person team within the State Department tasked with leading international energy diplomacy. The cuts were part of the then Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative to reduce the federal workforce, with the goal of slashing the federal budget.

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More than a month into the conflict—with President Donald Trump indicating he will redouble attacks on Iran in the coming weeks—former ENR officials are warning DOGE eliminated key roles that would have helped the administration navigate and mitigate the energy chaos of the conflict and its impact on global oil markets, as well as foresee potential consequences of ongoing actions.

Fortune spoke with two former ENR officials—who wished to remain anonymous out of fear of retribution from the department—who are sounding the alarm on the insights and knowledge the federal government has lost as a result of the cuts, especially during a period of widespread oil and energy disruptions. 

“It’s shocking how poorly prepared the administration is,” one former employee told Fortune. “You took away the people with the expertise and contacts who would be insanely useful in this context.”

Created in 2011 by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton under the Obama administration, ENR was intended to navigate the geopolitical complexities of the global energy industry. Made up of diplomats and policy experts, the bureau developed close ties with embassies, foreign energy ministries, and private sector energy companies. Officials compiled relevant information to brief the Secretary of State and other department officials, as well as engaged with stakeholders such as private energy companies.

In July 2025, ENR effectively ceased to exist, with media outlets reporting the remnants of the bureau would be folded into the Bureau of Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs (EEB). About 1,300 personnel were cut from the State Department by summer 2025. The only ENR staff retained were those working on critical minerals and renewable energy.

Former officials were particularly befuddled by the cuts given Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s previous comments about wanting the U.S. to play a significant role in global energy.

“We need to be at the table to have conversations about not just what our role in energy is, but how we help invest or partner with countries that have a supply of energy,” Rubio said in a budget hearing last May.

“Nobody knows why they cut us,” one former ENR employee said. “Especially since a key part of the office’s mission was to monitor and engage with major fossil fuel companies and ministries.”

A State Department spokesperson confirmed to Fortune that ENR’s capabilities have been incorporated into EEB.

“Following this comprehensive reorganization, the Department’s energy policy teams are performing better than ever,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “EEB is coordinating the release of strategic reserves with allies and partners in response to Iran’s attacks, driving increased exploration and production with U.S. companies in key theaters globally, especially in Central Asia, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere including Venezuela, and hosting the Secretary’s historic Critical Minerals Ministerial earlier this year with 55 international delegations in one of the largest ministerials at the State Department.”

Impacts of the war

As a result of the U.S. and Israeli attacks and subsequent Iranian counter attacks, the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has been effectively closed, roiling energy supply chains and driving up the price of crude above $100 per barrel. Gas prices have jumped above $4 per gallon on average, the highest since 2022. The ongoing attacks have sent global markets reeling, stoking concerns of a global oil shock.

The former ENR officials said the existence of the bureau today would not have stopped the war, but could have provided key data to the private sector and Rubio to inform decision-making on energy supply and distribution. 

“So many current and former federal government experts assess that this particular administration would likely have ignored guidance that waging this war would be foolish and unlikely to advance U.S. security and economic interests,” another former employee said. “But there is a zero percent chance that Secretary Rubio, particularly in his very empowered dual role, would not have been made aware of these particular eventualities or predictions.”

One former official said one ENR role during the conflict could have been to work with foreign ministries and U.S. embassies to identify vulnerable critical infrastructure in the Gulf region, such as in the South Pars in Iran or the North Field in Qatar, and strategize a path forward if that infrastructure was attacked. Those analyses would have revolved around how attacks would impact oil and gas production, and how supply could be diverted to alternative pipelines to keep energy going out to global markets.

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ENR also had contract agreements with specialized private firms that looked at shipping data tracking major oil tankers. Both former employees Fortune spoke with had close connections with oil companies such as Chevron, BP, and ExxonMobil, and in times of conflict, could have used those channels to obtain shipping data and help determine the amount of oil and natural gas already in tankers heading to market. During non-conflict times, ENR was these companies’ first call for non-U.S. investments, one official said.

These communications could have reduced the elements of surprise for U.S. government officials about energy disruptions and vulnerabilities to Iranian attacks, as well as the consequences of attacks on global oil supply.

“If nothing else, our energy sector and foreign private sector companies could have been better informed about what [the U.S. government] is considering,” one official said. “And our government could have had much more information about the concerns of other countries and other companies.”

Long-term ramifications

These deep institutional connections were gutted along with the personnel maintaining the relationships, representing a loss to what one official called the “continuity of experts” the State Department once had access to. The functional bureaus, such as ENR, were made up of subject-matter experts in longer-term government roles who once trained foreign service officers, many of whom are still employed at the agency.

“The DOGE cuts have created structural gaps in the State Department’s knowledge on energy of all forms, and definitely oil and gas,” one former official said.

Top ENR officials had close connections with ministries and private companies who could have picked up the phone and called these stakeholders directly. Many existing energy experts stationed in the Gulf had to evacuate their embassies, and were unlikely to easily and quickly communicate with decision-makers. Many ENR officials were based in Washington, D.C., and if the bureau was still around today, could have filled in some of the gaps in immediate communications.

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“We could have easily picked up a chunk of their work while they were in transit back to the U.S. as part of full or partial embassy draw-downs,” an expert said.

The former ENR officials’ concerns go beyond the immediate ramifications of the conflict in Iran. 

In addition to having comprehensive market knowledge of energy in the Middle East, Gulf, and North African regions, ENR also worked closely with East Asian counterparts. Without key State Department personnel, the picture on how China is making decisions on energy investments are not as complete or accessible as it once was, one former official said. Reduced coverage could impact the U.S. awareness of Gulf energy flows to China. China imports about 1.3 million barrels per day from Iran, making up about 13% of its total oil imports. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, China could be doubling down on coal investments, or reducing energy consumption because of shifts towards renewables.

“There was expertise and institutional capacity that was thrown into the garbage,” a former employee said.

If you’re a current or former federal employee with a tip, or if you’d like to share your experience, please contact Sasha Rogelberg on Signal @sashrogel.13.

The Fortune 500 Innovation Forum will convene Fortune 500 executives, U.S. policy officials, top founders, and thought leaders to help define what’s next for the American economy, Nov. 16-17 in Detroit. Apply here.

About the Author

By Sasha RogelbergReporter

Sasha Rogelberg is a reporter and former editorial fellow on the news desk at Fortune, covering retail and the intersection of business and popular culture.

Energy Iran

Iran’s military may be decimated, but it’s winning the energy war as it controls who gets cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz

By 

Jordan Blum

Editor, Energy

April 4, 2026, 3:03 AM ET

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Local residents visit Muscat Anchorage near the Strait of Hormuz on March 30, 2026 in Muscat, Oman.Elke Scholiers—Getty Images

The U.S. may continue to “obliterate” Iran militarily over the coming weeks—as President Trump repeatedly threatens—but Iran’s likelihood of maintaining some control over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint increases daily and could ultimately equate to a “major victory” in the war.

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Trump says Strait of Hormuz could “open very soon”

That potential win for Iran, and for its allies Russia and China, would result in higher oil and gas prices—and greater inflation—longer term, leaving the world notably worse off than before the U.S. and Israel initiated the war, energy and geopolitical experts told Fortune.

“Seizing the strait and controlling traffic through it—even if that control is imperfect—is a major victory for a regime that has no other successes to celebrate besides survival,” said Matt Reed, vice president of geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports. “Iran is confident that it will exert some control, and it will insist on collecting tolls to legitimize its role and pay for post-war reconstruction.”

The alternatives are the U.S. intensifying the military pressure—including by putting troops on the ground—or the current stalemate dragging on for longer. Trump has said attacks will escalate for two or three weeks, but he’s also telling other countries that they should get their own oil and that the U.S. doesn’t need to control the strait.

Iran already is picking winners and losers from an energy standpoint, allowing a trickle of shipments to trek to China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines—a group that includes the neediest Asian nations—but these shipments are being individually negotiated. Overall vessel traffic from the Persian Gulf in March plunged to just 5% of February levels, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea, and volumes have increased only slightly in April thus far.

“Economies around the world will break if this drags on too long. Cracks are already starting to show,” Reed said. “Everyone loses if Iran retains control of the strait much longer, because oil and other prices will climb to intolerable levels.” The only way to avoid that outcome, he said, is if either an outright U.S. victory or peace deal with Iran is achieved relatively soon.

Evolving traffic flows

Most of the fortunate few tankers exiting the strait are taking a route close to the Iranian shoreline, after paying tolls of up to $2 million per vessel. A small handful began moving through closer to the Omani coast on April 2, potentially offering a small hike in traffic. But close to 400 large oil and gas tankers remain stranded in the Gulf—not even counting smaller vessels and container ships, said Rohit Rathod, senior analyst with the Vortexa cargo tracking firm.

About 135 vessels typically pass through the strait each day—carrying close to 20% of the world’s oil, liquefied natural gas, agricultural fertilizer, and petrochemicals. The transits are now in the single digits each day, Rathod said. Prices for oil future benchmarks sit near $110 per barrel, with many physical, spot barrels selling above $140.

“If [nations and shippers] want to have their vessels go through unmolested, they’ll have to have some sort of channel of communication with the Iranians,” Rathod said. “And I think [Iran] will still try to cause trouble with some of the Western-affiliated tankers carrying cargoes going to the U.S. or Europe.”

In the meantime, Russia is selling more of its oil at much higher prices than before the war, gaining a windfall. China, which imports more oil from the Middle East than anyone, is secure for now because of its world-leading reserve stockpiles. The developing Asian countries have suffered the most from supply shocks, and now Europe is seeing increasing signs of energy shortages. The average price of retail gasoline has risen above $4.10 per gallon in the U.S., but that’s cheap relative to the rest of the world.

Even in the best-case scenario of a truce or peace deal soon, experts said, traffic flows won’t return to normalcy before mid-summer. And that flow won’t replace the hundreds of millions of barrels lost in the interim. Prices could remain elevated for years.

For now, the military conflict is escalating. A U.S. fighter jet was shot down April 3; in Kuwait, Iranian drone attacks damaged an oil refinery, a water desalination plant, and a power plant. An estimated 3,000 people have been killed to date in Iran and from Israel’s attacks in Lebanon, where it is targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-allied militia.

“Even if the war were to end today, there will be a state of permanence to this mess until Iran has won some concessions from all of its neighbors individually,” said Samir Madani, cofounder of TankerTrackers.com. He argued that a broader peace deal is unlikely because of “individual grievances” with each neighbor—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain.

“They will want to apply pressure on those countries to end their relationships with the U.S.,” Madani said.

Rhetoric and reality

Trump’s primetime speech April 1 offered little clarity as he vowed to wind down the operations after “two or three weeks” of bombing Iran “back to the Stone Ages where they belong.”

Simultaneously, he said other countries must “go to the strait and just take it,” arguing that “when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally.”

Unsurprisingly, oil prices rose as he spoke. “That seems optimistic,” a Piper Sandler analyst note retorted the next morning. “The best explanation is likely this: Trump doesn’t know what he is going to do.”

Trump has set an already postponed deadline of April 6 for Iran to either make a peace deal or have its energy infrastructure bombed.

Indeed, Trump’s inconsistency has continued via social media since his speech. After saying the U.S. didn’t need to seize the strait, he posted April 3, “With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE.”

The premise of leaving control of the strait up to U.S. allies and Iran to work out is a “really bad idea,” said oil forecaster Dan Pickering, founder of the Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm.

“The ripple effects of Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz are really bad,” Pickering said.

If the U.S. withdraws and Iran maintains some control, then there likely would be a “period of relative quiet” during which prices come down, Pickering said. But they would almost certainly remain elevated from their February levels because of higher geopolitical tensions, supply chains woes, and higher risk premiums for tanker insurance, he said.

This state of affairs would create an untenable balance, with Israel and all of Iran’s Gulf neighbors upset about the U.S. having ceded any control to Iran, and facing a threat of extortion from the Iranian regime. And it would only be a matter of time before Iran or its proxy allies, the Houthis or Hezbollah, act out again, Pickering said.

“We’re likely to have structurally higher oil prices for the next two to five years,” Pickering said. “I think Iran wins in that situation. I think the losers are global consumers because prices will be higher.”

The Fortune 500 Innovation Forum will convene Fortune 500 executives, U.S. policy officials, top founders, and thought leaders to help define what’s next for the American economy, Nov. 16-17 in Detroit. Apply here.

About the Author

By Jordan Blum Editor, Energy

Jordan Blum is the Energy editor at Fortune, overseeing coverage of a growing global energy sector for oil and gas, transition businesses, renewables, and critical minerals.

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