The war a colossal mistake : John Mearsheimer

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Sir Niall Ferguson: Aspire Conference. History is repeating itself. As Predicted the New Gulf War is Here.

Mar 21, 2026

Recorded for the ASPIRE Conference on 11th February 2026 at Stanford University, California — just weeks before the outbreak of war with Iran. “An aircraft carrier group of the United States is in position in the Persian Gulf and further air strikes against Iran seem quite likely.” Sir Niall Ferguson argues that the world has already entered a Second Cold War, the warning signs have been visible for years, and the West has been dangerously slow to act as it begins to warm. Ferguson makes the case that Australia is unprepared for what comes next in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Taiwan. — @AspireConference Subscribe to our channel to watch conference sessions and new ASPIRE content. — Sir Niall Ferguson is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and one of the world’s leading historians. He is the author of more than fifteen books including The Ascent of Money and Civilisation, and writes regularly for Bloomberg and The Free Press.

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Mario Nawfal: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz … a real live traffic jam aimed at breaking the petrodollar …..

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Axios: Iran’s economic shock pile

Iran’s economic shock pile
 
Illustration of three rocket missiles flying and leaving smoke trails in the shape of a dollar sign.
Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
 
The Iran war’s economic consequences risk outlasting the war, Axios’ Courtenay Brown reports.

Why it matters: Any swift ceasefire or arrangement allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz won’t undo supply shocks that could linger for months — and in some cases, years.📈 

The intrigue: Economists across Wall Street, plus the Fed, are penciling in higher forecasts for inflation this year.

United CEO Scott Kirby said yesterday in a letter to employees: “[O]ur plans assume oil goes to $175/barrel and doesn’t get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027. Honestly, I think there’s a good chance it won’t be that bad, but as you’ll read below, there isn’t much downside for us to preparing for that outcome.”🚢 

What’s happening: The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has already upset the global flow of commodities. This week’s damage to energy facilities in the Gulf could deepen that disruption.

Attacks this week on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iran’s retaliation wiped out 17% of the nation’s natural gas export capacity, Qatar’s top energy official, Saad al-Kaabi, told Reuters.

The damage likely means less natural gas from the region in the long term — with nearly 13 million tons of liquefied natural gas sidelined annually for as long as five years, Kaabi said.Today’s headlines in The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian.

After extensive shipping blockage and infrastructure destruction, the economic reverberations are vast:🌾 

Fertilizer. Natural gas is a key ingredient for fertilizer. About a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer supply — and almost half of the world’s urea, a critical solid nitrogen fertilizer — is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. farmers who didn’t preorder fertilizer might not get enough in time for spring planting, the American Farm Bureau told AP. 

Higher prices for diesel — which powers agriculture equipment — already risk aggravating food inflation.⚙️ 

Helium. The damage to Qatar’s natural gas facilities will also squeeze the production of an important byproduct: helium, a critical input for semiconductor manufacturers racing to keep up with AI-related demand.Share this story.
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Revenue Ireland is almost certainly referring to a Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT) charge on the “benefit” of free (or below-market) accommodation from the trust—not a classic employee Benefit-in-Kind (BIK) under income tax. 

Revenue Ireland is almost certainly referring to a Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT) charge on the “benefit” of free (or below-market) accommodation from the trust—not a classic employee Benefit-in-Kind (BIK) under income tax. The provided AI overview is broadly directionally correct but mixes terminology and needs some clarification based on official Revenue rules (as of 2026). I’ll break it down accurately, highlight disability-specific reliefs that can eliminate or greatly reduce the liability, and outline next steps.What Revenue is Charging & How It’s Valued

  • When an adult child (not yet “beneficially entitled in possession” to the full property) lives rent-free in trust-owned property, Revenue treats this as an annual taxable gift/benefit under section 40 CATCA 2003 (free use of property).
  • The benefit is deemed taken on 31 December each year (or the day before it ends). Value = market rental value for that year (less the €3,000 small-gift exemption per disponer).
  • If the trust deed gives an explicit right of residence (common in wills), it is a limited interest. Revenue accepts a practical valuation of 10% of the property’s market value annually (or 20% if the trust also provides support/maintenance). You subtract any actual rent paid and claim the small-gift exemption.
  • This is CAT (not income tax), charged at up to 33% on the excess after your Group A threshold (€400,000 lifetime from parents, plus aggregation rules). The trust (trustees) or the child may have filing/payment obligations.

It is not the same as employee BIK (which is irrelevant here unless trustees pay you as an employee, which they don’t).

Strong Exemptions/Reliefs Because of DisabilityYour situation is much more favourable than a standard adult child case because of the permanent disability:

  1. Section 82 CAT exemption – “normal & reasonable” support/maintenance
    Gifts or benefits provided to a child (any age) who is permanently incapacitated (physically/mentally unable to maintain themselves) for their support/maintenance are fully exempt from CAT.
    Free accommodation in a property set aside for this purpose is widely accepted as qualifying “maintenance”. Revenue’s own guide explicitly extends this to incapacitated children (unlike healthy adults over 25).
  2. Discretionary Trust Tax (DTT) exemption (6% once-off + 1% annual)
    If the trust is (or can be shown to be) exclusively for a person incapable of managing their affairs due to physical/mental incapacity, it is fully exempt from DTT.
    Apply via MyEnquiries or your Revenue office with a medical certificate/evidence (e.g., Disability Allowance, medical reports). Many special-needs trusts from wills qualify.
  3. Section 84 CAT – qualifying expenses of incapacitated persons
    Any benefit used exclusively for medical care, therapies, home adaptations, etc., is exempt. Accommodation enabling independent living can tie into this.
  4. Dwelling House Exemption (section 86)
    Possible on a future absolute distribution/appointment of the property (if the child has lived there 3+ years as main residence, has no interest in any other dwelling, and continues living there). Less straightforward for a “second property” that was never the parent’s PPR or if held in trust, but worth checking with the trust deed. Gifts to dependent relatives (incapacitated) also qualify in some cases.
  5. Other possible reliefs
    • LPT exemption or deferral for incapacitated owners/occupiers (medical evidence required).
    • If the trust qualifies as a “special trust” (rare—needs public fundraising element), full income/CGT exemptions apply, but DTT exemption above is more relevant here.

Key Actions You Should Take Immediately

  1. Gather documents
    • Full copy of the will/trust deed (to confirm: fixed right of residence vs discretionary; any specific wording about the child’s entitlement).
    • Medical evidence (doctor/specialist letter confirming “permanently and totally incapacitated from maintaining himself/herself”).
    • Property valuation/rental estimate.
  2. Engage professionals (do this first)
    • A solicitor specialising in trusts/estates + a tax advisor (ideally STEP-qualified or with Revenue CAT experience). They can:
      • Apply for DTT exemption.
      • Draft a response/claim to Revenue citing s.82/s.84.
      • Possibly restructure (e.g., appoint a life interest or confirm the trust as qualifying).
    • Cost is worth it—many cases end with zero tax via exemptions.
  3. Deal with Revenue
    • File Form IT38 (CAT return) online via myAccount/ROS even if claiming full exemption—deadlines are strict (4 months from valuation date).
    • Reply to their notice within the timeframe, attaching claims + evidence. Ask for a “Revenue opinion” or meeting.
    • If DTT applies, file DT1 if not already done.
  4. Practical next steps
    • Contact Revenue MyEnquiries (or your local office) referencing the specific notice.
    • Check Citizens Information or Inclusion Ireland guides on special-needs trusts—they align with the above.
    • Consider whether the child has any other property interest (this can block dwelling-house relief).

Disclaimer: This is general guidance based on Revenue.ie publications and the CAT Consolidation Act 2003 (current as of early 2026). Every trust deed and medical situation is unique—professional personalised advice is essential to avoid penalties/interest and secure the exemptions. Tax law changes and interpretations can shift; a qualified advisor can obtain binding confirmation from Revenue.If you share (anonymised) details like the exact wording in the will/trust or the Revenue letter, I can help refine this further. In the meantime, the disability angle gives you very strong grounds to push back successfully—many similar families end up paying nothing once the claims are properly made. Act quickly on the professional consultation.

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Matt Goodwin … discusses “Suicide of a Nation”

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Axios: Trump’s AI plan

Trump’s AI plan
 
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Aaron Schwartz/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Trump administration released its highly anticipated recommendations for Congress on AI today.

Why it matters: The National AI Legislative Framework marks a starting point from the White House. But it’ll be incredibly hard for Congress to pass anything like it — even with Republicans in control, Axios’ Ashley Gold, Maria Curi and Mackenzie Weinger write.

What’s inside: As part of “winning the AI race,” the four-page White House proposal calls on Congress to:👭 
Address the use of AI replicas that simulate someone’s likeness or voice.🔋 

Codify President Trump’s pledge to require tech companies to pay for their increased energy demands.🛝 

Establish “regulatory sandboxes” to allow developers to experiment with AI under relaxed rules.🌐 Focus on kids’ online safety.🥊 

Reality check: The plan isn’t tied to specific bills, and it doesn’t resolve long-standing issues around protecting kids and overriding state law.▶️ 

What’s next: A renewed clash with states and Congress over the future of AI regulation. Disagreements over AI policy go well beyond R vs. D.

The push to preempt state laws will also continue to draw resistance from local politicians on both sides of the aisle.

Debates over federal reach, copyright and kids’ safety remain the same sticking points that have stalled action for years.Read the plan … Get Axios AI+.
  

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No 1 threat to Britain … an Islamist take-over. Liz Truss and Ayaan Hirsi Ali warns Britain and Europe

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Viktor Orban: President Trump: A VERY BIG HELLO TO CPAC HUNGARY

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In a landmark medical technology milestone, a fully autonomous AI-powered robotic dentist — built by US company Perceptive — completed a full crown preparation on a human patient in just 15 minutes.

Imtiaz Mahmood

@ImtiazMadmood

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In a landmark medical technology milestone, a fully autonomous AI-powered robotic dentist — built by US company Perceptive — completed a full crown preparation on a human patient in just 15 minutes. The same procedure typically takes a human dentist 2–2.5 hours. The robot used real-time 3D scanning, AI decision-making, and a precision robotic arm to perform the entire procedure without any human guidance or intervention mid-surgery. This isn’t a concept or prototype — it’s already been performed on real patients and a peer-reviewed study was published in the Journal of Dentistry in January 2026. Experts say this is the beginning of a transformation: robotic dentists could eliminate human error, work at any hour, and eventually bring high-quality dental care to remote and underserved communities where trained dentists are unavailable. The dental office of 2035 may look very different from today’s.

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