Is America’s relationship with Canada permanently changed, and what does that mean for our future? Host Amanda Lang sits down with American political scientist, and GZERO Media founder Ian Bremmer to discuss Trump’s weakening political power, the growing threat from Russia, and whether Canada can navigate our increasingly unpredictable world.
00:00 Introduction 00:45 How much leverage does Canada have on trade? 05:39 Why Bremmer predicts Trump will lose the midterms 09:17 Will Republicans turn against Trump? 12:55 What changes after Trump—and what stays? 18:47 Can Canada’s middle-power strategy work? 23:56 What closer EU ties could mean for Canada 27:41 Why Russia is the bigger threat 32:35 How U.S. allies are navigating Trump 35:29 Would America defend its NATO allies? 37:13 Can Canada turn this crisis into economic growth? 39:26 The biggest risk Canada should focus on
From left to right: Bafel Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Nechirvan Barzani, President of Iraqi Kurdistan Region, Qubad Talabani, Deputry Prime Minister of Kurdistan Regional Government, Fauzi Hariri, Chief of Staff of Kurdistan Regional Presidency. Photo Credit: Via RFE/RL
Iraqi Kurdish Leaders Raise Prospect Of Peace Talks Between Iran And Kurdish Opposition
Senior leaders in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region have publicly discussed facilitating peace talks between Iran and Iranian Kurdish armed opposition groups based in the autonomous region, with PUK head Bafel Talabani describing the start of a process similar to Turkey’s and noting Tehran’s positive response.
Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani offered a more cautious view that discussions are only under consideration, criticized the groups for irresponsible actions during the U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran, and highlighted longstanding security concerns that Iran uses their presence as a pretext for attacks.
Iranian Kurdish parties say they are open to talks but remain distrustful after decades of conflict, while a scheduled Oct. 19 Iraq-Iran meeting and a 2023 relocation agreement form the backdrop to ongoing strikes and skepticism that negotiations would produce meaningful results rather than weaken the opposition.
Senior leaders in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region have publicly discussed efforts to facilitate peace talks between Iran and Iranian Kurdish armed opposition groups based in the autonomous region.
Bafel Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), said on Monday that a process similar to peace efforts between Turkey and Kurdish militants had begun with Iran.
“We are at the beginning of a similar process with our Iranian brothers and sisters,” Talabani said at an event in Erbil, adding that the issue had been discussed extensively with Tehran, which had responded positively.
“Iran has offered to help us create a general peace process in the region,” he said. “I think this dialogue will be very, very important.”
The PUK, which holds Iraq’s presidency, maintains close relations with Tehran.
Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, however, offered a more cautious assessment, saying discussions had not yet reached the level of the peace process in Turkey, where the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has announced a decision to disarm last year.
“A process similar to Turkey’s peace process in Iran may not have begun yet, but it is being considered,” Barzani told the Middle East Research Institute (MERI) in Erbil on Monday.
Barzani said Kurdish leaders had repeatedly raised the issue with Iranian officials and stressed that Tehran and its Kurdish opposition should seek a peaceful settlement.
The comments mark a rare public acknowledgment of diplomatic efforts involving Iran and Kurdish opposition groups that have been exiled to the Iraqi Kurdistan for decades.
Security concerns and opposition response
Iraqi Kurdish leaders have long viewed tensions between Tehran and the Iranian Kurdish opposition as a threat to their region’s security and an obstacle to improving relations with Iran. They argue Iran often uses the presence of Iranian Kurdish opposition in their region as a pretext for missile and drone attacks.
Barzani criticized the Iranian Kurdish groups on Monday, accusing them of acting irresponsibly since the launch of the U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran on Feb. 28.
“The Kurdish opposition of Eastern Kurdistan [Iran], with deep regret, acted very irresponsibly,” he said.
Iranian Kurdish opposition groups say they favor a peaceful settlement with Tehran but remain deeply distrustful of the Islamic Republic, citing decades of conflict and the assassinations of Kurdish leaders during previous diplomatic efforts.
Khalid Azizi, spokesperson for the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), told Rudaw on Monday that his party was open to negotiations but questioned Tehran’s intentions and who could represent Iran following the reported deaths of senior officials in recent U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Iraq and Iran officials are scheduled to meet on Oct. 19 to discuss the opposition groups’ presence in Iraqi Kurdistan, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al-Aboudi told Rudaw on Tuesday.
Under a 2023 security agreement, Baghdad agreed to relocate Iranian Kurdish armed groups away from the border and prevent cross-border attacks while allowing them to remain in Iraq as refugees.
Tehran has repeatedly targeted the groups, accusing them of threatening its security, allegations they deny. Opposition representatives told VOA that more than 420 Iranian attacks since Feb. 28 had killed 23 people, figures that could not be independently verified.
Iran’s Kurdish population is estimated at around 9 million, or roughly 10% of the country’s population, although some estimates are as high as 15 million. Iran does not publish official ethnic population figures.
UNHCR estimates that 10,000 to 30,000 Iranian Kurdish refugees and asylum seekers live in Iraq, mostly in the Kurdistan Region.
Doubts over prospects for peace
Despite the public statements by Iraqi Kurdish leaders, some Iranian Kurdish political figures remain skeptical that negotiations would produce meaningful results.
Jalil Azadikhah, an Iranian Kurdish political analyst and activist based in Washington, told VOA that efforts to initiate a peace process had been underway for a long time but were only now being discussed publicly.
He argued that Tehran’s objective was not to resolve the Kurdish issue but to weaken and ultimately dismantle the Kurdish opposition movement.
“At this point, I think any form of negotiation between the Kurdish parties and Iran is inappropriate, because there is no right opportunity for it now,” Azadikhah said.
“WAKE UP, EUROPE RISKS BECOMING AN ISLAMIC CALIPHATE.” Cypriot MEP Geadis Geadi delivered a blistering warning in the European Parliament over the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamist influence in Europe.
Geadi is a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists group and has previously backed efforts to place the Muslim Brotherhood on the EU terrorist list.
“Where are the MEPs of the Left now? If we were talking about Palestine, they would be the first to run here.”
Geadi called for zero tolerance toward the Muslim Brotherhood, an end to funding organizations and states he says use it as a vehicle for influence, and for the group to be added to the EU list of terrorist organizations with meaningful sanctions.
He also singled out Turkey: “Stop funding Turkey while Erdoğan salutes you with the four-finger gesture, the signature symbol of the Muslim Brotherhood.” His closing message to Europe: “Wake up already.”
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Trump’s America is becoming a rogue state.
The Russians are making a mockery of Trump’s energy ceasefire.
What the restrictions on Starlink mean and how they are being felt.
The Russians are pushing towards Dobropillia.
The 3rd Army Corps reported on the next phase of Operation Vivaldi, but we learned nothing new.
Maps of the day — Lyman, Dobropillia
Videos of the day — a drone hit a flying Mi-28 helicopter; how a heavy machine gun is used in drone warfare; civilians fleeing the fighting were struck by artillery and mortar fire
Trump’s America is becoming a rogue state.Ukraine, as well as Europe as a whole, must now accept that the United States is openly supporting Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Under the pretext of efforts to end the war, the US government — and, as of Tuesday, a major technology company as well — are openly backing the fight against Ukraine and, therefore, against European security.
The United States has recently taken several decisions in quick succession that could help Russia win the war, at a time when it was failing to do so on the battlefield.
US president Donald Trump eased sanctions on trade in Russian oil, enabling Russian president Vladimir Putin to better finance his aggression against Ukraine, and effectively called for the overthrow of Ukraine’s legitimate president.
A growing number of voices claim that the US has stopped providing intelligence on Russian air raids (this has not been confirmed, and some authorities deny it).
And the United States has now also deprived the Ukrainian army of the ability to carry out effective medium-range strikes.
It did so by dramatically restricting the Starlink service over Ukraine’s occupied territories. In practice, this will have serious consequences for the Ukrainian army’s ability to use drones for its previously highly effective attacks on Russian logistics.
What the restrictions on Starlink mean and how they are being felt.Since this morning, the Ukrainian army has reported restrictions on the operation of receivers for SpaceX’s satellite system.
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Thanks to Starlink boss Elon Musk’s equipment, they destroy hundreds of Russian army trucks and other military equipment every month at distances of 30 to more than 100 km.
However, on the night of 14 October, Ukrainians lost access to the military part of the system known as Starshield, meaning that the devices did not function at speeds above 160km/h. This means drones cannot carry out combat missions because their operators cannot guide them to their targets.
The situation deteriorated further during the day. Serhii Sternenko reported that the army later reported losing control at speeds above 70 km/h. This means grounding Ukraine’s drone fleet for medium-range attacks.
It is highly likely that this is not a technical problem but a response to a request from the Trump administration, since otherwise the Ukrainian army would have received an explanation — which, according to Ukrainian sources, did not happen.
According to our observations, communications may have been interrupted for 10 to 20 seconds during drone flights,even at speeds of 110 to 120 kilometres per hour,” Oboronka news outlet quoted a military source.
A technical problem is unlikely, as the Ukrainian military would have received an explanation in that case, which,according to Ukrainian sources, did not happen. The question now is how long the outage will last. It is also unclear to what extent the decision was made by Musk and to what extent by Trump.
“Our defence forces received no warning of such a restriction, which led to the cancellation of several missions. It is clear that this is no coincidence and is connected to the current political situation,” wrote Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, for example.
He described as an even more serious problem than the restriction of medium-range attacks the fact that Starlink is now crucial to intercepting Russian air raids on Ukrainian cities.
“Through their actions, our partners are depriving us of one of the few means of protecting the country against jet-powered Shahed drones,” said Beskrestnov, a leading drone expert.
Among European politicians, Poland’s foreign minister responded by asking Musk whether he was once again engaging in politics, and reminding him that his European customers were watching him closely.
Naturally, the Russians are delighted.
However, the change will not affect Ukrainian long-range air strikes. The drones carrying them out are not guided using Starlink, so the restrictions will not affect their operations.
The Russians are making a mockery of Trump’s energy ceasefire. The US president characteristically announced with great fanfare that he had brokered an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
Although the Russian army did not observe it for a single day, the Ukrainians stayed away from Russian refineries for 48 hours. That is no longer the case after today, but before then the Russians carried out a massive air raid, including on the capital.
They used as many as 39 ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones. Since Trump had earlier deprived Ukraine of effective air defence in the form of missiles for Patriot systems, it has nothing with which to defend itself against such attacks. As a result, the Russians struck three Kyiv thermal power plants on Wednesday.
The Kremlin does not even conceal that a Trump ceasefire means nothing to it.
“Tonight, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive strike using precision-guided weapons and long-range strike drones against communications and energy infrastructure facilities in Kyiv, Kyiv region and Kharkiv region,” said a statement by the Russian defence ministry.
It also included a list of the power plants hit. The Russians boasted that they had struck six of them. For each one, they used the formula that it was “supplying electricity to military logistics facilities, weapons depots and military equipment”.
Mike Pence, who served as Trump’s vice-president during his first term, wrote that Putin did not want peace but Ukraine, and that Trump should impose harsh sanctions rather than strike a deal with Putin. None of this, however, will happen.
The Russians are pushing towards Dobropillia. All analysts agree on this. Their advance is slow, but persistent. It is enabled by the mass deployment of Russian soldiers.
The Kremlin has currently concentrated its largest number of forces in this sector. It therefore appears that the capture of Dobropillia is the Russian command’s main objective in these weeks.
“The Russians here have a seemingly endless pool of manpower and a clear numerical advantage, allowing them to significantly increase the flow of infiltrators and thus the likelihood that some will penetrate Ukrainian defences,” wrote the OSINT account Playfra, whose map can be found below. However, the price of the unceasing waves of infantry is, according to it, “colossal losses” on the Russian side.
French analyst Clément Molin published a time-lapse map of the past four months based on DeepStateUA data. Its latest version is not the most accurate and does not correspond to other sources, but it illustrates the slow pace of the Russian advance.
The Polish analytical account Thorkill examined the situation north-east of Dobropillia in greater detail. It sees a significant Russian advance there.
It bases this assessment on Sentinel satellite data which, it said, showed no signs of Russian bombardment in the areas of Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Novotroitske and Andriivka — an indication, in its view, that they are under Russian army control.
Playfra sees the situation far less negatively. It did confirm Russian infiltration in Andriivka, which lies as much as 20 km behind the notional front line, but said that around eight Russian groups of two to four soldiers were moving throughout the area and did not pose a threat.
For easier orientation: Zolotyi Kolodiaz is at the tip of the green salient on Playfra’s map. On Thorkill’s map above, it is located in the lower centre, within the red area.
The two depictions of the situation therefore differ radically. However, there is agreement that the Russians are currently exerting the greatest pressure near Dobropillia and are advancing slowly.
The 3rd Army Corps reported on the next phase of Operation Vivaldi, but we learned nothing new. Andrii Biletskyi, the commander of what is perhaps the strongest component of Ukraine’s army, published a new video confirming the liberation of another 101 square kms north of Lyman. Since the start of Operation Vivaldi, this brings the total to 277 square km.
The Ukrainian project DeepStateUA, which is close to the army and respects the operational silence it has declared, also published its map of the area.
The latest version includes the liberation of the villages of Kolodiazi, Zelena Dolyna and Lypove. However, this is not new information but merely reflects changes that have been discussed since August.
Russian sources, especially Rybar, have also repeatedly reported that fighting is actually taking place further east. According to them, Ukrainian soldiers have already reached several locations, including the village of Terny on the Zherebets River. This area is marked red on DeepStateUA’s map, indicating that it is under Russian control.
Poland’s Thorkill has more recent data. Over the weekend, it published a map consistent with Rybar’s claims that Ukrainians had reached the Zherebets near Terny and further north.
Videos of the day
A Ukrainian drone pursued and caught up with a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter in Kharkiv region. The Russians were on a combat mission; the footage clearly shows a missile being launched. The outcome of the attack is not yet known.
The following photographs are related to the previous video. The image on the left appeared on the Russian internet at the beginning of the month, described as the result of an FPV drone strike. It is currently unknown whether this is the same incident or another, as yet unidentified one.
A 12.7mm US heavy machine gun being fired. The close-up footage shows what the trigger looks like, but above all reveals the tactics for using the weapon. The machine gunner fires a short burst at Russian positions, then reports over the radio that the task has been completed.
A confirming “plus, plus” is heard twice from the other end — “plus” is used in radio communication to confirm receipt of a message — after which the soldier covers the machine-gun position with a camouflage net and goes into hiding to avoid being detected by Russian drones.
Only the Ukrainian version of events is known about the footage below. It shows civilians from the Kupiansk area attempting to move to safety. However, they are struck by fire while on the move — the number of casualties is unknown and they cannot be seen in the footage.
According to the Khartiia unit, which published the video, the Russian army subjected the group to artillery and mortar fire. The claim cannot be verified. In any case, it illustrates that it is a mistake to remain in areas affected by fighting.
What are the losses
No update on Wednesday.
By Tuesday (13 October), Russia had verifiably lost 24,192 pieces of heavy equipment (24,170 on Monday, 5 October). Of these, 19,155 (19,133) were destroyed by Ukrainians, 1,002 (1,003) were damaged, 1,194 (1,194) were abandoned by their crews, and 2,841 (2,840) were captured by the Ukrainian army. This includes 4,453 (4,452) tanks, of which 3,358 (3,357) were destroyed in combat.
Ukraine lost 12,259 (12,238) pieces of equipment, of which 9,652 (9,633) were destroyed, 713 (711) damaged, 695 (695) abandoned and 1,199 (1,199) captured. This includes 1,471 (1,466) tanks, of which 1,131 (1,126) were destroyed in combat.
Note: Neither side regularly reports on its own dead or destroyed equipment. Ukraine publishes daily figures for Russian casualties and destroyed equipment, which cannot be independently verified. This overview uses data from the Oryx project, which has compiled a list of equipment losses documented exclusively by photographs since the start of the war.
Andrew A. Nierenberg, MD, explains how the Bipolar Action Network uses shared data and improvement science to change how bipolar disorder care is delivered.
Most clinicians cannot say how their patients are doing overall. The Bipolar Action Network aims to change that, according to Andrew A. Nierenberg, MD, the Thomas P. Hackett, MD, Endowed Chair in Psychiatry at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. Nierenberg also directs the Dauten Family Center for Bipolar Treatment Innovation at MGH.
Nierenberg spoke with Jessica Gannon, MD, of the University of Pittsburgh, in this episode of “Psychopharm Today.” He described the network as a learning health network, a model developed at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital that has been used successfully 15 times. In these networks, health care systems collaborate closely, share outcomes data, and apply improvement science to complex conditions.1
He cited 2 examples. Solutions for Patient Safety brings together about 150 children’s hospitals that share data on hospital-acquired harm. In ImproveCareNow, more than 100 clinics treating about 30,000 young people with inflammatory bowel disease work together to improve outcomes.2
Measuring Outcomes
According to Nierenberg, the first question for any health system is whether better patient outcomes are a priority. The second is whether the system knows its patients’ outcomes, and none of the participating systems did. To keep the burden low for patients and clinicians, the network chose the Clinical Global Impression-Severity (CGI-S) scale as its core outcome measure.
The data gave Nierenberg his first view of his own clinic’s outcomes. The clinic treats about 425 patients with bipolar disorder. About 30% are doing well and 70% are not. For patients who are not doing well, the network supports structured peer consultation, and the results of each consultation feed back into a shared database.
Network members are also adopting tactics that are common in other areas of medicine but rare in psychiatry, such as previsit planning. With this approach, labs and patient-reported data are collected before an appointment, so the clinician has actionable information during the visit.
Experts by Experience
Patients and family members, whom the network calls “experts by experience,” help redesign care. The network is built as an actor-oriented organization, a model from Øystein Fjeldstad of BI Norwegian Business School, so any member can test an idea without asking permission. Projects led by experts by experience include a mood-tracking app and a tool that stores a patient’s medication history, including response and tolerability.
“They solve the problems we wouldn’t even know about,” said Nierenberg.
Spreading Improvement
The network holds about 3 learning sessions a year, both virtual and in person. Members share network-wide and local projects at these sessions. Nierenberg drew a distinction between traditional quality improvement and improvement science. Improvement science relies on repeated plan-do-study-act cycles and a “science of spread.” Experts in system change advise members to start small, show better outcomes, and let other sites adopt what works.
Health care systems interested in joining can contact the Bipolar Action Network to see whether it is a good fit.
Dr Gannonis an associate professor of Psychiatry at the University of Pittsburgh.
Dr Nierenbergis a professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School and a psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital.
Why do people become addicted? When does a habit turn into self harm and what makes recovery so hard? From drugs and alcohol to gambling and social media, join our panel of experts as they explore the causes of addiction, what it looks like in the brain and potential new treatments, including psychedelic therapies.
Panel: Prof Sally Marlow: Professor of Public Understanding of Mental Health at KCL Matt Willis: Musician/actor and podcaster in recovery from addictions Dr Nicky Kalk: Psychiatrist and addiction specialist at Maudsley NHS Trust Prof David Nutt: Director of the Neuropsychopharmacology Unit, Imperial College, London
A Question of Science A Question of Science is a groundbreaking series of panel discussions where experts from different fields respond to your questions, sharing the scientific perspective on society’s most pressing questions. A Question of Science is BBC Studios production for the Francis Crick Institute.
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