2028: Trump’s final act

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

A special look for AM readers at Axios CEO Jim VandeHei’s political briefing, published first in his weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter: President Trump doesn’t much care if Republicans lose the House and/or the Senate in November. Yes, he’d prefer a big win. But he seems indifferent to the election and the possibility of endless Democratic investigations of his family, wealth and policies, close advisers tell us. A big reason: Trump knows he’ll emerge just as strong, or even stronger, heading into his final two years, at least among Republicans. The big picture: Trump is not a share-the-stage, pass-the-torch, groom-your-successor kind of guy. Instead, he’ll exploit his leverage:  A more MAGA Senate. Almost all of his critics will be gone through defeat or retirement. The incoming class is very Trumpy. If they keep the Senate, Trump loyalists like Mike Lee (Utah), Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Rick Scott (Fla.) will chair committees.  A more MAGA House. Trump already serves as de facto speaker, but his few outspoken GOP critics — Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) — will be gone, replaced by members who won because of him.  A ’28 kingmaker. Trump’s firm hold on the base means he will dictate the GOP’s nominee and shape their message. He wants a Vance-Rubio ticket and will likely get it if his mind doesn’t change. Imagine any ’28 hopeful, especially Marco Rubio or JD Vance, trying to break with the boss while working for the boss.  Cashing in. Trump will use levers of power to keep raising money to expand his clout beyond the presidency. “He likes the fact that when he tells someone, ‘Give me money,’ they give him money,” an adviser told us.  3 dramas to watch post-November: Trump will flirt with running again in ’28 until the bitter end, but it’s all about PR and keeping Vance and Rubio in their place. As potential outside-the-walls competition in ’28, the White House is watching Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.). A constitutional clash over congressional oversight, among the last and most vital powers lawmakers hold dear. What happens if Trump orders his entire administration, family and friends to just ignore Congress? If you’re a CEO or on a CEO’s team: Ask to join Jim’s new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.Share this briefing.

Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

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5 times Trump threatened to obliterate Iran in days, only to TACO:

• March: 48hr deadline extended

• April: “Stone Age” threat ➔ ceasefire

• June: Called off strike hrs before

• July: Held off on “probable” deal

• Today (Aug 2): “Locked & loaded” ➔ halts attacks day later

The New Yorker

@NewYorker

The Irish singer, songwriter, and folk-music hero Glen Hansard died on Wednesday, in a motorcycle accident, at the age of 56. “What I loved about seeing Glen Hansard live,” Hanif Abdurraqib writes, “was that he, spiritually, never stopped being the guy playing on a rainy street, trying to capture the attention of people walking by.” This took rigor and care, Abdurraqib argues, and a willingness to insist on the power of the stage as a communal space. Read Abdurraqib’s reflection on the urgent intimacy of a singer with a voice so loud it could fill a room—but so powerful it could draw you in with just a whisper: https://newyorker.com/news/postscript/glen-hansards-street-corner-stories?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhtwitter&utm_content=app.dashsocial.com%2Fnewyorkermag%2Flibrary%2Fmedia%2F704076064

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Mossad Commentary

@MOSSADil

IRANIAN ADVISOR ISSUES STARK WARNING TO U.S. Mohammad Mokhber, an advisor to Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that any strike on Iran’s infrastructure would have far-reaching consequences, declaring: “You calculate according to military equations, but we respond according to the logic of history. Attacking Iran’s infrastructure will directly trigger geological fractures on which your hegemony has been built for 250 years. When the pillars of this system collapse, there will be neither a command center nor a market to plunder.”

The Cradle

@TheCradleMedia

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MbS allegedly urged Trump to avoid massive strikes on Iran: Axios —— According to two US officials and a third source familiar with the call cited by Axios, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) spoke with President Trump on Saturday, expressing concern over plans for major new US strikes against Iran and urging him to de-escalate. One US official told Axios that “the Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action,” while another source said MbS specifically urged Trump to refrain from launching the strikes. Axios also reported that Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met US officials earlier in the week to convey Riyadh’s preference for “de-escalation” despite recent joint US-Saudi strikes on pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. According to Axios, Qatar, Turkiye, Pakistan, and the UAE are also pushing for de-escalation, while Qatari-mediated talks involving Iran, the US, and Oman are ongoing.

Jul 31, 2026 The Ezra Klein Show

The first year of President Trump’s second term was a whirlwind of action: on immigration, on trade, on political retribution. But things seem to me to be slowing down quite a bit. Trump is incredibly unpopular, and he’s now bogged down in a war with Iran that he doesn’t seem capable of ending. He often appears more concerned with his many White House renovations than with whether the Republican Party can hold the House and the Senate in November. So what’s going on in this administration? Where is this all going? It’s hard to think of a journalist more qualified to answer those questions than Maggie Haberman. As a White House correspondent for The New York Times, she’s published some of the hardest-hitting reporting about Trump’s second act as president and the group of loyalists that now surrounds him. Haberman, alongside her New York Times colleague Jonathan Swan, just published an extraordinary chronicle of this extraordinary political moment, “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.” In this conversation, we discuss how decisions get made in this White House, what Trump has achieved so far and what’s really motivating him as we head toward the midterms.

0:00 Intro 1:15 Trump 2.0, Year 1 versus Year 2 3:55 How Trump views Iran 11:27 Does Trumpism even exist? 13:03 How Jeffrey Epstein exposed MAGA fissures 16:16 What does Trump actually know? 22:27 Trump’s self-dealing 38:49 Governing by executive action 42:08 Which cabinet members actually have power? 47:30 The spectacle feedback loop 51:05 Trump And Mamdani 52:35 Is age impacting Trump? 55:23 Why Trump is obsessed with renovations 57:28 Does Trump even care about policy? 1:01:03 Book recommendations

Laura Rozen reposted

Orla Joelsen

@OJoelsen

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Once again, Trump has shared this AI – image on his own social media platform. As we say in Greenland: Keep your hands off Greenland. Greenland is not a toy. Period.

What is cognitive reserve?You can think of cognitive reserve as your brain’s ability to improvise and find alternate ways of getting a job done.  It reflects how agile your brain is in pulling in skills and capacities to solve problems and cope with challenges. Cognitive reserve is developed by a lifetime of education and curiosity.  The concept of cognitive reserve originated in the late 1980s, when researchers described individuals with no apparent symptoms of dementia who were nonetheless found at autopsy to have brain changes consistent with advanced Alzheimer’s disease. These individuals did not show symptoms of the disease while they were alive because they had a large enough cognitive reserve to offset the damage and continue to function as usual. Get your copy of A Guide to Cognitive Fitness In this Special Health Report, Harvard Medical School doctors share a seven-step program that can yield important and lasting results. Together these lifestyle changes can strengthen your intellectual prowess, promote your powers of recall, and protect the brain-based skills that are essential for full, rewarding, and independent living. From simple and specific changes in eating to ways to challenge your brain, this is guidance that will pay dividends for you and your future. SHOW ME MORE → Since then, research has shown that people with greater cognitive reserve are better able to stave off symptoms of degenerative brain changes associated with dementia or other brain diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease, multiple sclerosis, or a stroke. A more robust cognitive reserve can also help you function better for longer if you’re exposed to unexpected life events, such as stress, surgery, or toxins in the environment. Such circumstances demand extra effort from your brain-similar to requiring a car to engage another gear.The heart of our brain health and cognitive fitness program, however, involves lifestyle changes. Researchers at Harvard Medical School have identified six cornerstones to any effective brain health and cognitive fitness program.Step 1: Eat a plant-based diet Step 2: Exercise regularly Step 3: Get enough sleep Step 4: Manage your stressStep 5: Nurture social contactsStep 6: Continue to challenge your brainThese factors are equal parts of a cohesive plan-they don’t work in isolation. Simply eating more fiber or adding a morning walk to your routine isn’t enough to forestall mental decline. Instead, exercise, diet, sleep, stress management, social interaction, and mental stimulation work in concert to yield results.For more on staying sharp as you age, read A Guide to Cognitive Fitness, a Special Health Report from Harvard Medical School.Image: © gmac84/Getty ImagesShare this story:

Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers

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Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers

Real EstateSeattle

One-third of Seattle’s downtown is empty: Here’s how America’s boomtown turned into one of the toughest places to find a job

By 

Nick Lichtenberg

Business Editor

July 27, 2026, 4:00 AM ET

Seattle’s downtown office vacancy rate hit 35.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 32.3% a year earlier.Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

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A decade ago, Seattle was the poster child of American tech prosperity. Amazon and Microsoft had turned a midsize Pacific Northwest city into a magnet for engineers, executives, and capital, adding roughly 40,000 jobs per year at the peak of the boom, according to the Puget Sound Regional Council.

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Today, more than one-third of downtown Seattle’s office space sits empty, its job postings have collapsed faster than almost any other U.S. metro, and even Starbucks—the coffee giant founded in the city in 1971—is shifting jobs south to Nashville, as it commits to a $100 million, 2,000-person new footprint in Music City. The story of Seattle’s reversal unfolds in three overlapping arcs: an office market in free fall, a labor market that has gone from boom to bust, and a policy environment that has made survival harder for the small businesses left behind.

Arc one: the zombie towers

Seattle’s downtown office vacancy rate hit 35.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 32.3% a year earlier, according to Cushman & Wakefield data. That marks a stunning reversal from the pre-pandemic era: As recently as early 2025, the central business district’s availability rate—offices with departures pending—and vacancy rate were already hitting all-time highs based on CoStar data stretching back to 1982.

Some brokers put the number even higher, with Colliers reporting vacancy touching 39.1% in late 2024 as remote work, tech layoffs, and cautious leasing decisions compounded. Office building values in the district have plunged sharply as a result, with landlords struggling to fill space abandoned by major tenants.

Arc two: the labor market reversal

The office crisis is inseparable from a broader collapse in hiring. Seattle metro job postings fell 35% between February 2020 and October 2025, the second-steepest drop of any major U.S. metro after San Francisco’s 37% decline, according to Axios’s analysis of Indeed data.

Tech firms in the area have announced tens of thousands of job reductions since 2023, primarily driven by Microsoft, Amazon, and Blue Origin. The region posted a net loss of 13,000 jobs in 2025—its first annual decline since the pandemic and a stark reversal from the 40,000-job annual gains of the boom years.

Arc three: the policy squeeze

Into this contraction came a wage floor with no exceptions. Seattle’s minimum wage, $20.76 an hour and applied uniformly to all employers regardless of size since January 2025, has intensified pressure on small businesses trying to survive the downtown exodus.

A peer-reviewed study published in Labour Economics found the wage ordinance’s announcement effect actually deterred new business formation within Seattle’s borders while generating positive “spillover” openings in neighboring suburbs, suggesting firms redirected growth rather than uniformly closing shop. Earlier University of Washington research similarly found the wage hikes reduced low-wage workers’ hours by about 9% even as hourly pay rose roughly 3%, per Ballotpedia’s fact-check compilation.

What makes Seattle’s situation distinct from other regional slowdowns is how tightly these three arcs lock together. CoStar estimates Seattle won’t fully break out of the vacancy cycle before 2027—a timeline that assumes the feedback loop stops tightening, which so far it hasn’t.

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For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

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About the Author

By Nick LichtenbergBusiness Editor

Nick Lichtenberg is business editor and was for