The Editor in Chief of The Economist completely dismantles Donald Trump on live TV. She calls his threats unhinged and confirms that Iran clearly has the strategic upper hand. If Trump escalates, oil prices explode. If he retreats, he loses. Total humiliation for Washington. pic.twitter.com/O8PaCwK8am
Intro 02:35 Why Does Your Perspective Matters Now 03:01 What’s Really Driving Tensions Between The US, Israel, And Iran 07:46 Why Israel Might See Iran As An Existential Threat 12:46 The Strait Of Hormuz—And What Happens If It Closes 16:40 Where Fertilizer Comes From—And What A Shortage Would Trigger 18:27 Why Oil Still Controls Everything—And The Cost Of Running Out 21:29 What Happens If This War Doesn’t End Quickly 22:13 The Real Cause Behind The Global Cost Of Living Crisis 25:38 Do Wars Widen The Gap Between Rich And Poor 29:58 Five Scenarios That Could Shape What Happens Next 30:10 Scenario 1: What Happens If Iran Is Destroyed 33:21 Scenario 2: The Fallout If Gulf Infrastructure Collapses 37:51 Scenario 3: The Samson Doctrine—And When It’s Used 44:53 Scenario 4: Could Iran Neutralize Israel’s Nukes 51:41 What Trump Really Wants—And The Fear Behind It 53:32 Will The US Put Troops On The Ground 56:31 What The Best-Case Scenario Actually Looks Like 59:23 Scenario 5: What Changes If Iran Goes Nuclear 01:01:00 Why Self-Sufficiency Might Be The Only Safety Net 01:03:59 What Could Trigger The Next Financial Crash 01:08:17 How To Survive Another Boom-And-Bust Cycle 01:09:45 Universal Basic Income—And Who It Really Helps 01:12:45 How AI Is Quietly Rewriting The Job Market 01:21:46 Is Bitcoin Headed To Zero 01:26:35 What Kind Of Leaders Do We Actually Need 01:28:34 What A Better System Could Look Like 01:30:37 What’s Broken In Capitalism—And Can It Be Fixed Enjoyed the episode? Share this link and earn points for every referral – redeem them for exclusive prizes: https://doac-perks.com
Political scientist Ivan Krastev joins Ian Bremmer to explain why the Hungarian election on April 12th may be the most consequential vote in Europe this year, and what an Orbán loss would mean for Trump, Putin, and the global far right.
Hungary is a country of 10 million people, but what happens there on April 12th could reverberate far beyond its borders. In this week’s episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with political scientist and Centre for Liberal Strategies Chairman Ivan Krastev to break down the stakes of the upcoming Hungarian elections.
Viktor Orbán has ruled Hungary for sixteen years, building a political model rooted in EU skepticism, economic ties with China and Russia, and a close alliance with the MAGA movement. Now he faces his strongest challenger yet: Péter Magyar, a conservative former insider whose anti-corruption message has pulled him ahead in the polls.
Krastev traces Orbán’s political arc from pro-democratic dissident to nationalist strongman, explains why his real economic patron is Beijing rather than Washington. He also breaks down what an Orbán loss would mean for EU policy on Ukraine, for Europe’s far-right parties, and for Trump’s political brand abroad. “For President Trump and for President Putin,” Krastev says, “Orbán losing is going to be their personal loss.”
Today, we examine the US’s colossal defense spending, efforts to tackle gang violence in Haiti, Hungary’s upcoming election, and what astronauts know about spheres of influence(around the moon).
– The Daily crew
China has boosted its defense spending 13-fold over the past three decades, modernizing its weapons and military into a force capable of operating beyond its borders. The buildup isn’t happening in isolation. Military spending in the Middle East climbed to 4.3% of the region’s GDP last year, up from 3.5% in 2022, driven in part by Israel after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.Across Europe, meanwhile, governments led by Germany are ramping up defense budgets at a record pace.
Even so, none of them comes close to the United States.
In the 2025 fiscal year, Washington spent $921 billion on its military, nearly as much as the next 14 largest defense budgets in the world combined, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. And the gap could widen soon.
On Friday, the White House requested an eye-popping $1.5 trilliondefense budget for the 2027 fiscal year. That’s a 44% jump from the year prior. If Congress approves it, the US would post its highest military spending in modern history.
Where would the money go? Bolstering munitions, expanding the US naval fleet, and kicking off construction of the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, for starters. The administration’s ask also appears to be separate from the $200 billion requested for its fight against Iran.
Other nations are also opening their wallets. China plans to raise military spending 7% this year amid tensions with Japan over Taiwan. Germany is set to spend $127 billion on defense in 2026 (and could soon dwarf Britain and France put together) in response to Moscow’s aggression and Washington’s disinterest in protecting the continent through NATO. India is hiking its own military budget after last year’s flare-up with its neighbor, Pakistan.
But in the defense race, the scoreboard isn’t close. When it comes to military spending, the United States is still playing in a league of its own.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
The most consequential force reshaping geopolitics and business can be captured in one word: asymmetry, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in his new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.
The smallcan now destroy the big.The cheap can neutralize the expensive.
Drones proved it on the battlefield. AI is proving it everywhere else.
Why it matters: Every CEO now faces the same question the Pentagon does: Are you the $3 million missile or the $35,000 drone?
Lessons from war:Iran and Ukraine, both outgunned on paper, turned cheap drones into strategic equalizers. They mass-produce weapons at $20K–$50K a pop and unleash them with missile-like precision. Both Russia and America are now racing to build their own.
We’ve shot down drones that cost less than a used car with $3 million missiles that take years to build. That’s structurally unsustainable.
Lessons for corporate America: AI is the drone. A sprawling org chart is the Patriot missile.
All businesses face a looming rethink: What are the smallest teams, fewest steps and quickest paths to do everything at every layer?
15 people can now do what 150 did. The most dangerous unit in business is no longer the biggest division — it’s the small team with proven AI leverage.
The old playbook: Throw headcount at the problem.
The new playbook? Give a tight team the right tools and get out of the way.
Look around. The companies winning right now aren’t the biggest. They’re the leanest and fastest. A can’t-ignore example:
Coefficient Bio: An 8-month-old, 9-person biotech AI startup that just got acquired by Anthropic for roughly $400M.This happened so fast because what they built is how you think through drug development, not a drug itself.
The bottom line: This shift is great news for any individual with a big idea.
One person orchestrating a team of AI agents can now do company-sized work. Just about anything is possible.Share this story. If you’re a CEO or on a CEO’s team: Ask to join the beta of Jim’s brand-new, weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.
One of Hitler’s favourite commandos became a gentleman farmer in the Curragh in County Kildare. Otto Skorzeny was born in Vienna in 1908, joined the Austrian Nazi movement, distinguished himself in the Waffen-SS on the Eastern Front, and was personally selected by Hitler for special missions.
In 1943, with Mussolini imprisoned in the Hotel Campo Imperatore, a ski resort high in the Apennine Mountains, the Führer ordered Skorzeny to lead the rescue. The plan was to crash-land gliders on a rocky slope beside the hotel and overwhelm the guards before they could organise a response. It worked, more or less, though the paratroopers who actually planned the operation spent years trying to claw back the credit from a man who had elbowed his way to the front of the photograph.
Churchill acknowledged the audacity in the House of Commons, and Skorzeny became the disgusting regime’s daredevil hero. During the Battle of the Bulge, Skorzeny deployed English-speaking German commandos in American uniforms to infiltrate Allied lines, prompting panic and confusion. Rumours spread that his men were planning to assassinate Eisenhower, who spent Christmas week confined to his headquarters in Versailles for fear of his life.
When the war ended, Skorzeny stood trial at Dachau for using enemy uniforms in combat and was acquitted.He was then held at an internment camp in Darmstadt awaiting a denazification hearing, from which he escaped in July 1948 with theatrical flair: three former SS men dressed as American military police walked in and announced they had orders to transfer him to Nuremberg. He was gone before anyone thought to check. Skorzeny later claimed the Americans had supplied the uniforms themselves. He fled to Madrid, set up an import-export business widely believed to be a front for the Nazi ratlines, and was rumoured to have had an affair with Eva Perón in Argentina.
In 1957 he arrived in Dublin to a reception at the Portmarnock Country Club that would have embarrassed a less shameless man. Journalists wrote admiring profiles and ambitious young politicians, among them a rising star named Charles Haughey, organised dinners in the Nazi’s honour.
The unrepentant six-foot-four commando with his duelling scar and his white Mercedes was doing what the young people tell me is called aura farming.By 1959 he had bought Martinstown House, a 165-acre gothic country estate near the Curragh, intending to make Ireland his permanent home.The Irish government said no, quietly and after considerable internal argument.
Dr Noel Browne raised questions in the Dáil, warning that Skorzeny appeared to be engaged in anti-Semitic activities and neo-Nazi networks and should not be permitted to use Ireland for that purpose. Rumours circulated that the estate was part of a postwar Nazi escape route. State files show the government was keeping close tabs. Visas were strictly temporary, capped at six weeks, and he was barred from travelling to Britain.
Among those who had initially waved through his first visa application was Conor Cruise O’Brien, then a senior official in External Affairs, who later expressed unease at the whole business. The contradictions were present from the very beginning. By the early 1960s the welcome had grown cold.
In 1971 he sold Martinstown House. He died in Madrid in 1975, unrepentant to the end, his coffin draped in Nazi colours and his funeral attended by former SS comrades. Even then he had been anything but retired.
He had set up the Paladin Group, an international directorate of strategic assault personnel, and in one of history’s more jaw-dropping ironies, the most dangerous man in Europe had ended up working for the Mossad, feeding them information on German scientists building missiles in Egypt aimed at Israel.
The Rundown: In this guide, you will learn how to set up an AI notetaker that works with any call on your iPhone. You probably know about AI notetakers for web, but most people don’t know that you can also do it on both outbound and inbound phone calls.
Note: Check the recording consent laws for your state before recording your calls.
Step-by-step:
Install Granola from the App Store, open it, tap the phone icon in the bottom left to set up. Enter your number, then follow the verification instructions To make a call, tap the phone button, pick a contact/type a number, and call. The call works like a normal one, but Granola is listening in the background. After hanging up, wait a minute. Granola will give a summary with action items and anything worth remembering. No need to stay on screen during processing. If you want to use Granola for an inbound call, you can open the app and create a new note. It will only be able to transcribe your voice though
Pro tip: Name notes in a format like [name] @ [company], create folders for work and personal calls. You can also connect Notion, Zapier, Slack, HubSpot, or your CRM
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is doing something no tech titan has ever done: He’s publishing a detailed blueprint for how government should tax, regulate and redistribute the wealth from the very technology he’s racing to build and spread,Axios’ Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a “Behind the Curtain” column.
Why it matters: Altman told us in a half-hour interview that AI superintelligence is so close, so mind-bending, so disruptive that America needs a new social contract — on the scale of the Progressive Era in the early 1900s and the New Deal during the Great Depression.
The big picture: The threats of inaction or slow action are grave, Altman warns — widespread job loss, cyberattacks, social upheaval, machines man can’t control.The two most immediate threats, he said, are cyberattacks and biological attacks:
We’ve told youthat top tech, business and government officials fear profound advances in soon-to-be-released AI models could enable a world-shaking cyberattack this year. “I think that’s totally possible,” Altman said. “I suspect in the next year, we will see significant threats we have to mitigate from cyber.”
AI companiesknow some random idiot, or some rogue nation, could use their models to conjure the next pandemic. “Wonderful things are going to happen there — we’ll see a bunch of diseases get cured,” Altman said. But he also knows terrorist groups could use the models to try to create novel pathogens:“[T]hat’s no longer a theoretical thing, or it’s not going to be for much longer.”
Altman told us OpenAI’s 13-page blueprint, “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to keep people first,” isn’t a prescription but a starting point:”
We want to put these things into the conversation. Some will be good. Some will be bad. But … we do feel a sense of urgency. And we want to see the debate of these issues really start to happen with seriousness.”
Here are Altman’s most provocative ideas:
A Public Wealth Fund. OpenAI proposes giving every American citizen a direct stake in AI-driven economic growth through a nationally managed fund, seeded in part by AI companies themselves, that “could invest in diversified, long-term assets that capture growth in both AI companies and the broader set of firms adopting and deploying AI.” This is the most radical idea in the document.
Robot taxes. The document floats “taxes related to automated labor”and shifting the tax base from payroll toward capital gains and corporate income — since AI could hollow out the wage-and-payroll revenue that funds Social Security, Medicaid and SNAP.
A four-day workweek.OpenAI suggests incentivizing companies and unions to run pilots of 32-hour workweeks at full pay, converting AI-driven efficiency to time back for workers — an “efficiency dividend.”
“Right to AI.” The plan frames AI access as being as foundational as literacy, electricity and internet — and says access should be affordable for workers, small businesses, schools, libraries and underserved communities.
Containment playbooks for rogue AI. In the most chilling passage, OpenAI acknowledges scenarios where dangerous AI systems “cannot be easily recalled” because they’re autonomous and capable of replicating themselves. Their answer: coordination that includes government.
Auto-triggering safety net. The blueprint envisions tripwires tied to economic data. When AI displacement metrics hit preset thresholds, temporary increases in public support — unemployment benefits, wage insurance, cash assistance — automatically kick in. When conditions stabilize, the measures phase out.
Between the lines: Let’s stipulate that Altman has every reason to hype the technology to raise more money at higher valuations — and to position himself as a thoughtful architect of a plan to protect us from the AI he’s rushing to market. But his OpenAI models are among the best-funded, best-performing, fastest-selling on Earth.”There’s many companies developing this,” Altman told us. “I’m only one voice inside [this] company — obviously, a big one. But this is an unbelievable honor, cool thing, scary thing altogether to get to be in this moment.
“The document is as much corporate strategy as policy paper. OpenAI is trying to position itself as the responsible actor in the room — the company that warned you and offered solutions — a lane Anthropic first filled.It’s also a play to shape regulation before regulation shapes them.
The bottom line: The man betting everything on superintelligence is telling the world that this thing is coming so fast, and so hard, that capitalism as we know it won’t be enough. Whether you believe the altruism or see the strategy, the admission alone is historic — and worth deep reflection. Watch a video of Mike’s interview with Sam … Read the blueprint. … Share this column.(Disclosure: Axios and OpenAI have a licensing and technology agreement that allows OpenAI to access part of Axios’ story archives while helping fund the launch of Axios into several local cities and providing some AI tools. Axios has editorial independence.)
The State Department, under Secretary Marco Rubio, gutted the Bureau of Energy Resources last summer.Brendan SMIALOWSKI / POOL / AFP—Getty Images
About six months before the first U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the Trump administration gutted the Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR), an 80-person team within the State Department tasked with leading international energy diplomacy.The cuts were part of the then Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative to reduce the federal workforce, with the goal of slashing the federal budget.
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More than a month into the conflict—with President Donald Trump indicating he will redouble attacks on Iran in the coming weeks—former ENR officials are warning DOGE eliminated key roles that would have helped the administration navigate and mitigate the energy chaos of the conflict and its impact on global oil markets, as well as foresee potential consequences of ongoing actions.
Fortune spoke with two former ENR officials—who wished to remain anonymous out of fear of retribution from the department—who are sounding the alarm on the insights and knowledge the federal government has lost as a result of the cuts, especially during a period of widespread oil and energy disruptions.
“It’s shocking how poorly prepared the administration is,” one former employee told Fortune. “You took away the people with the expertise and contacts who would be insanely useful in this context.”
Created in 2011 by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton under the Obama administration, ENR was intended to navigate the geopolitical complexities of the global energy industry. Made up of diplomats and policy experts, the bureau developed close ties with embassies, foreign energy ministries, and private sector energy companies. Officials compiled relevant information to brief the Secretary of State and other department officials, as well as engaged with stakeholders such as private energy companies.
In July 2025, ENR effectively ceased to exist, with media outlets reporting the remnants of the bureau would be folded into the Bureau of Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs (EEB). About 1,300 personnel were cut from the State Department by summer 2025. The only ENR staff retained were those working on critical minerals and renewable energy.
Former officials were particularly befuddled by the cuts given Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s previous comments about wanting the U.S. to play a significant role in global energy.
“We need to be at the table to have conversations about not just what our role in energy is, but how we help invest or partner with countries that have a supply of energy,” Rubio said in a budget hearing last May.
“Nobody knows why they cut us,” one former ENR employee said. “Especially since a key part of the office’s mission was to monitor and engage with major fossil fuel companies and ministries.”
A State Department spokesperson confirmed to Fortune that ENR’s capabilities have been incorporated into EEB.
“Following this comprehensive reorganization, the Department’s energy policy teams are performing better than ever,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “EEB is coordinating the release of strategic reserves with allies and partners in response to Iran’s attacks, driving increased exploration and production with U.S. companies in key theaters globally, especially in Central Asia, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere including Venezuela, and hosting the Secretary’s historic Critical Minerals Ministerial earlier this year with 55 international delegations in one of the largest ministerials at the State Department.”
Impacts of the war
As a result of the U.S. and Israeli attacks and subsequent Iranian counter attacks, the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has been effectively closed, roiling energy supply chains and driving up the price of crude above $100 per barrel. Gas prices have jumped above $4 per gallon on average, the highest since 2022. The ongoing attacks have sent global markets reeling, stoking concerns of a global oil shock.
The former ENR officials said the existence of the bureau today would not have stopped the war, but could have provided key data to the private sector and Rubio to inform decision-making on energy supply and distribution.
“So many current and former federal government experts assess that this particular administration would likely have ignored guidance that waging this war would be foolish and unlikely to advance U.S. security and economic interests,” another former employee said. “But there is a zero percent chance that Secretary Rubio, particularly in his very empowered dual role, would not have been made aware of these particular eventualities or predictions.”
One former official said one ENR role during the conflict could have been to work with foreign ministries and U.S. embassies to identify vulnerable critical infrastructure in the Gulf region, such as in the South Pars in Iran or the North Field in Qatar, and strategize a path forward if that infrastructure was attacked. Those analyses would have revolved around how attacks would impact oil and gas production, and how supply could be diverted to alternative pipelines to keep energy going out to global markets.
ENR also had contract agreements with specialized private firms that looked at shipping data tracking major oil tankers. Both former employees Fortune spoke with had close connections with oil companies such as Chevron, BP, and ExxonMobil, and in times of conflict, could have used those channels to obtain shipping data and help determine the amount of oil and natural gas already in tankers heading to market. During non-conflict times, ENR was these companies’ first call for non-U.S. investments, one official said.
These communications could have reduced the elements of surprise for U.S. government officials about energy disruptions and vulnerabilities to Iranian attacks, as well as the consequences of attacks on global oil supply.
“If nothing else, our energy sector and foreign private sector companies could have been better informed about what [the U.S. government] is considering,” one official said. “And our government could have had much more information about the concerns of other countries and other companies.”
Long-term ramifications
These deep institutional connections were gutted along with the personnel maintaining the relationships, representing a loss to what one official called the “continuity of experts” the State Department once had access to. The functional bureaus, such as ENR, were made up of subject-matter experts in longer-term government roles who once trained foreign service officers, many of whom are still employed at the agency.
“The DOGE cuts have created structural gaps in the State Department’s knowledge on energy of all forms, and definitely oil and gas,” one former official said.
Top ENR officials had close connections with ministries and private companies who could have picked up the phone and called these stakeholders directly. Many existing energy experts stationed in the Gulf had to evacuate their embassies, and were unlikely to easily and quickly communicate with decision-makers. Many ENR officials were based in Washington, D.C., and if the bureau was still around today, could have filled in some of the gaps in immediate communications.
“We could have easily picked up a chunk of their work while they were in transit back to the U.S. as part of full or partial embassy draw-downs,” an expert said.
The former ENR officials’ concerns go beyond the immediate ramifications of the conflict in Iran.
In addition to having comprehensive market knowledge of energy in the Middle East, Gulf, and North African regions, ENR also worked closely with East Asian counterparts. Without key State Department personnel, the picture on how China is making decisions on energy investments are not as complete or accessible as it once was, one former official said. Reduced coverage could impact the U.S. awareness of Gulf energy flows to China.China imports about 1.3 million barrels per day from Iran, making up about 13% of its total oil imports. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, China could be doubling down on coal investments, or reducing energy consumption because of shifts towards renewables.
“There was expertise and institutional capacity that was thrown into the garbage,” a former employee said.
If you’re a current or former federal employee with a tip, or if you’d like to share your experience, please contact Sasha Rogelberg on Signal @sashrogel.13.
The Fortune 500 Innovation Forum will convene Fortune 500 executives, U.S. policy officials, top founders, and thought leaders to help define what’s next for the American economy, Nov. 16-17 in Detroit. Apply here.
Sasha Rogelberg is a reporter and former editorial fellow on the news desk at Fortune, covering retail and the intersection of business and popular culture.
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