F. First Post: Jeffrey Sachs Exclusive: ‘US Incompetence Cannot Be Overestimated’ | US Iran Ceasefire | N18G

Premiered 2 hours ago #jeffreysachs#usiranceasefire#trump

A two-week Iran-US ceasefire is in place but don’t mistake silence for peace. Beneath the surface, tensions are sharper than ever. Both sides are claiming victory, but who is really gaining ground? Who’s controlling the narrative, and more importantly, the negotiating table? And where does Israel fit into this high-stakes equation? Hem Kaur Saroya speaks to economist and geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Sachs in an exclusive conversation.

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Axios: Ceasefire confusion reigns

Ceasefire confusion reigns
 
Iranians celebrate in Tehran early today after the ceasefire announcement. Photo: AFP via Getty Images

The U.S., Israel and Iran agree that a ceasefire is in effect — but they’re contradicting each other and themselves on what’s been agreed on and what happens next, Axios’ Barak Ravid writes.

Those differences will have to be reconciled in negotiations, starting Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan.

One thing everyone agrees on: There’s no guarantee the war is over. 

President Trump’s key condition for a ceasefire was reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

But it’s unclear how open it actually is. Iran halted ships there today after fresh Israeli attacks against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, per Iranian state media.

Iran and the Pakistani mediators say the ceasefire applies to Lebanon. The U.S. and Israel disagree. (Go deeper.) Attacks also took place during the ceasefire’s first 12 hours against oil facilities in Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

Pakistan’s prime minister warned such actions “undermine the spirit of the peace process.”Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth takes questions at the Pentagon today. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images 

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press conference today that Iran’s attacks continued because of Iranian communications issues.

Hegseth said: “It takes time for a ceasefire to take hold. We think it will.”

Both sides say they can quickly resume fighting:

Hegseth said today: “We will be hanging around to make sure Iran complies. … We are prepared to restart in a moment’s notice.”

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement: “We are with our hand on the trigger, ready to respond to any attack with more force.” 

Attention now shifts to Saturday’s negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance leading the U.S. team.

The sides are far apart on several core issues, including money to rebuild Iranian buildings and infrastructure, the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, and ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah.Go deeper.
    
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Neuroscience News: Brain’s Default Setting for Ambiguity Matters for Mental Health

This shows a head and a question mark.

Studying how the “whole brain” resolves ambiguity—rather than just the amygdala—could unlock new ways to treat stress-related conditions. Credit: Neuroscience News

Brain’s Default Setting for Ambiguity Matters for Mental Health

FeaturedNeurosciencePsychology

·April 6, 2026

Summary: When you see a facial expression that could be either surprised or shocked, does your brain instinctively label it as “good” or “bad”? This split-second reaction is known as valence bias.

A new review suggests that how we interpret ambiguity is a core part of our personality and a major “red flag” for future mental health. While children typically start with a negative bias and shift toward positivity around age 10, those who stay “stuck” in a negative loop face a significantly higher risk of depression, anxiety, and stress-related physical illnesses later in life.

Key Facts

  • The Positivity Shift: Valence bias evolves over a lifespan. Humans generally move from a “negative-first” perspective in early childhood to a more positive outlook starting at age 10, a trend that continues into old age.
  • Risk Marker: Adults who maintain a strong negative valence bias are statistically more likely to experience chronic stress, which can lead to a range of physical health problems beyond mental health.
  • Brain Network Discovery: While emotion research usually focuses on the amygdala (the fear center), Neta discovered that resolving ambiguity actually activates the cingulo-opercular network, which is responsible for cognitive control.
  • Early Intervention: Because this bias is a “reliable” trait shaped over time, psychologists believe simple tests of valence bias could be used as early screening tools to identify children at risk for depression before symptoms even appear.
  • Holistic Brain Function: The research argues that “threat detection” (spiders/snakes) is a localized process, but “ambiguity resolution” requires the whole brain to work together to decide what a situation means.

Source: University of Nebraska–Lincoln

In a split second, the brain determines whether an ambiguous situation is good or bad — and those snap judgments can reveal important information about a person.

A new article by Husker psychologist Maital Neta suggests that these responses, known as valence bias, could help identify risk factors for depression, anxiety and other stress-related conditions, and unlock secrets about how the brain works.

Neta, Happold Professor of Psychology and resident faculty in the Center for Brain, Biology and Behavior at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, published a review in Current Directions in Psychological Science.

The article explores the next phase of understanding valence bias across brain networks, and the mental and physical health implications for individuals based on their valence bias.

“There’s been a lot of attention paid in the literature to how people respond to threats, such as spiders or snakes or fearful faces, but much less attention has been paid to how people respond to ambiguity,” Neta said. “How people approach ambiguity says a lot about them. It’s a pretty reliable thing about you that’s shaped over the course of your life.”

Valence bias develops over the whole lifespan, Neta said. Children are more likely to have a negative valence bias, but around age 10, there is a shift in most children, and they begin to be able to see things more positively. And this shift toward positivity continues throughout aging — older adults typically have more of a positive bias than younger adults. 

“It has important implications,” she said. “It’s associated with things like depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms, if you are somebody that tends to always interpret these things as being more negative.”

Research shows that children who do not make the transition from predominantly negative to more positive valence bias are at higher risk for depression and anxiety later in life. Similarly, adults with a more negative valence bias are more likely to experience those conditions.

“And that negativity can be linked with greater stress, which can lead to a range of health problems,” Neta said.

Beyond mental health outcomes, studying responses to ambiguity may also offer insights into how brain networks interact. For decades, research focused primarily on specific brain regions, such as the amygdala, which plays a central role in processing emotion — particularly fear and anxiety. However, in earlier magnetic‑resonance imaging studies of valence bias, Neta made an unexpected discovery.

Instead of finding activation of the amygdala, she found activation of the cingulo-opercular network, which is thought to support cognitive control.

“There really needs to be a much greater appreciation of the entire brain, because your whole brain is kind of working through these situations,” Neta said. “There’s a whole network of regions that are really important and help resolve what’s happening in front of you. Considering the whole brain would really enrich the science moving forward.”

Looking ahead, Neta said she believes that simple assessments of valence bias could be used as early interventions, particularly for children. She is continuing to explore this possibility in forthcoming research.

“If we see that kids are not shifting away from the negativity, and we think they are more likely to develop something like depression or anxiety, can we get in there early and try to help them to shift the bias so that they’re put on a better path?” she said.

Key Questions Answered:

Q: If I’m a “glass half-empty” person, am I destined to be depressed?

A: Not necessarily, but a persistent negative valence bias is a known risk factor. The “glass half-empty” mindset means your brain is working harder to resolve ambiguity as a threat. The good news? Because this is linked to the cingulo-opercular network (the brain’s control center), it suggests these biases can be “re-trained” through cognitive interventions.

Q: Why do 10-year-olds suddenly become more positive?

A: This is a major developmental milestone. Around age 10, the brain’s executive control regions begin to mature. This allows kids to move past the “safety-first” negative survival instinct of early childhood and start using context to see the “bright side” of ambiguous social cues.

Q: How is “ambiguity” different from a “threat”?

A: A threat is a snake in the grass—your amygdala reacts instantly to keep you alive. Ambiguity is a friend’s “blank” text message. Your brain has to choose how to feel about it. How you make that choice tells scientists more about your long-term mental health than how you react to a snake.

Editorial Notes:

  • This article was edited by a Neuroscience News editor.
  • Journal paper reviewed in full.
  • Additional context added by our staff.

About this mental health research news

Author: Sean Hagewood
Source: University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Contact: Sean Hagewood – University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Image: The image is credited to Neuroscience News

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Clash Report: Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid absolutely blasts Netanyahu

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@OccupyDemocrats BREAKING: Trump’s “ceasefire” on the verge of collapse just hours after announcement as Israel goes rogue and commits a HORRIFYING massacre of innocents with weapons paid for by our tax dollars!

Occupy Democrats

@OccupyDemocrats

BREAKING: Trump’s “ceasefire” on the verge of collapse just hours after announcement as Israel goes rogue and commits a HORRIFYING massacre of innocents with weapons paid for by our tax dollars!

Apparently, Trump didn’t bother involving the Israelis in his ceasefire negotiations, who were taken aback by the abrupt cessation in hostilities. The IDF has responded by unleashing a murderous bombardment of Lebanon’s capital of Beirut, killing hundreds if not THOUSANDS of people as they wantonly use American missiles and bombs to blow entire city blocks apart.

Israeli media reports 50 warplanes dropped 160 bombs across Lebanon in minutes. One Israeli missile strike hit a funeral, killing everybody. Israel has also bombed Iran’s Lavan oil refinery in an obvious attempt to provoke a reprisal and to tear the ceasefire apart.

Israel claims that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire, despite the Pakistani negotiators saying that it was.

Iran has warned that the ceasefire will collapse if the killing in Lebanon continues and that no ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz until Lebanon is included in the ceasefire.

The sadism and nihilistic violence being displayed by the Israelis is shocking to behold, and it’s all paid for by our tax dollars! Trump cannot control our allies, cannot hold the peace together, and has created a nightmare for millions of people for no reason other than so he could be the guy who “got” the ayatollah.

Who could have predicted that a Donald Trump-negotiated deal would be falling apart almost immediately? We even called it with this tweet from our own Mark Bland: https://x.com/markbland/status/2041690770566987822?s=20

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Trump’s ceasefire deal with Iran

Ian Bremmer

April 08, 2026

In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer breaks down the newly announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran and whether it can hold.

https://www.gzeromedia.com/video/ask-ian/trumps-ceasefire-deal-with-iran

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Futurism: College Students Losing Ability to Participate in Class Discussions Because They Offloaded Their Thinking to AI

College Students Losing Ability to Participate in Class Discussions Because They Offloaded Their Thinking to AI

“Everyone now kind of sounds the same.”

By Joe Wilkins

Published Apr 7, 2026 2:01 PM EDT

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Students from all walks of life are becoming homogenized as they increasingly outsource their brains to AI chatbots.
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It’s well known that students from grade schools to the big universities are increasingly outsourcing their thinking to large language models (LLMs). The consequences are already measurable: elementary students are losing cognitive skills, leading them to tank their exams.

Harder to quantify — but impossible to miss if you’ve spent any time in school lately — is the situation unfolding across classrooms, where students from all layers of society have become empty vessels that parrot the outputs of AI without critically engaging with the subject matter at hand.

One student at Yale University, identified as Amanda, told CNN that the monotonous prose of ChatGPT is even seeping into Ivy-league seminars. As the student and her classmates have observed, in-class conversations among peers are becoming increasingly flat and predictable, a symptom of students leaning on AI to think through discussions for them.

During one memorable awkward silence in class, Amanda told CNN she saw “someone typing ferociously on their laptop, asking [AI] the question my professor just asked about the reading.”

“Everyone now kind of sounds the same,” the Yale student said. “I feel like during my freshman year in college, I would sit in seminars where everyone had something different to contribute. Although people would piggyback off each other, they approached from different angles and offered different commentary.”

Amanda isn’t alone. One of her peers, Jessica, said that the start of every class kicks off an AI mad dash. “At the beginning of class, you could see every single person putting every single PDF [into AI],” the Yale senior told CNN.

Numerous studies have explored AI’s impact on human expression. One recent paper, published in the journal Trends in Cognitive Sciences, argued that LLMs dull the ways their users approach issues, deploy language, and reason through problems. When we use AI chatbots to think, the authors posit, we’re silently exchanging our own human thoughts for LLM output: a homogenized aggregate of our chosen model’s training data.

Morteza Dehghani, a professor of psychology and computer science at the University of Southern California and co-author of the paper told CNN that the implications of this are “quite scary.”

“If people lose [cognitive] diversity or get into intellectual laziness, of course, that is going to affect our society greatly,” Dehghani said.

More on AI: A Staggering Proportion of High School Kids Are Using AI to Do Their Homework, Which Is Probably Not Going to End Well

Joe Wilkins

Correspondent

I’m a tech and labor correspondent for Futurism, where my beat includes the role of emerging technologies in governance, surveillance, and labor.

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The Deep View: Open AI’s case for AI New Deal

side Open AI’s case for an AI New Deal
2. Anthropic built a model too dangerous to ship — yet
3. AI-based layoffs are a sign you’re doing it wrong
Exclusive: The story behind OpenAI’s policy moonshot

OpenAI’s stated mission is to ensure AGI benefits all of humanity. A group of the company’s researchers is putting extra focus on the “all” part. 

In an exclusive interview with The Deep View, the lead researcher on OpenAI’s ambitious new blueprint, “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First,” explained why this report is needed and what the company hopes it will accomplish.

Adrian Ecoffet, the OpenAI research scientist who spearheaded the initiative, told me that a group of around 3 dozen researchers at OpenAI came together to build this report in collaboration with the policy team. They created a series of working groups on various topics they wanted to include in the report and eventually settled on two main themes: 

Building an Open Economy (or spreading the economic impact of AI)

Building a Resilient Society (or how we keep AI safe and under human control)

The company is on the verge of releasing its most powerful models yet, ones that could create crises ranging from economic dislocation to cybersecurity disasters. To preempt this, the researchers explored policies that could rein in the damage before it happens, creating a policy blueprint that could change the social contract in the biggest way since the New Deal.

On the surface, this looks like a doc aimed at policymakers and public officials, but the reality is broader than that.”This document is meant as a conversation starter,” said Ecoffet. “The ideas are not fully baked. There are probably a lot of problems with them. In many cases, they are not very specific. And so what I hope is for people to react to it, and frankly criticize it [and] even come up with rip‑offs of it. And to really have a good conversation about these ideas.”The thirteen-page document has a strong egalitarian bent to it and proposes several revolutionary concepts: 

A Public Wealth Fund: The government creates a fund that invests in AI companies and shares the profits with citizens, so everyone benefits from what could be the greatest wealth creator in history, rather than just the wealthy. This would raise all kinds of practical challenges. But if their goal is to stimulate debate, this certainly will.

32-hour/four-day workweek pilots tied to efficiency dividends: If AI makes workers more productive, companies should pass those gains on to employees in the form of a shorter work week, rather than pocketing all the extra profits.

“Right to AI” similar to universal internet access: Just as we made sure most people can access electricity and the internet, the government should make sure everyone can access affordable AI tools. Again, this keeps the benefits from accruing disproportionately to rich people.

AI-driven corporate gains and automated labor: As AI replaces human workers and companies earn higher profits, those companies should pay higher taxes to help fund social safety nets that retrain and support displaced workers. Ecoffet said the goal of these proposals is not to have them all accepted as-is. Instead, the goal is to bring the risks and impacts of AI to the public consciousness before AGI and superintelligence have fully come to fruition. That’s something that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has also advocated, telling Ecoffet and other researchers in a roundtable published Tuesday that the public and policymakers alike need a long period of time to debate these ideas to make good decisions long before AI triggers potential crises that force us to act. 

Al Gore, former vice president and founding partner of Generation Investment Management, echoed this sentiment in his keynote speech at the HumanX conference in San Francisco on Monday. Referring to Anthropic publishing its constitution for Claude in January, Gore told a crowd of several thousand attendees that “I think there ought to be a public discussion and debate of the constitution written for … each of the [frontier] models.” So far, none of the other frontier labs, including OpenAI, has published a constitution like the one Anthropic has opened up for Claude.OpenAI believes we will need a New Deal-style policy moonshot to reframe the social contract around AI. Doing that is going to require raising awareness about these issues in the public consciousness, so that we come to a consensus around them by the time superintelligence gets here. OpenAI isn’t the first to call attention to these ideas. As companies continue their push for AGI, ethics organizations have been calling for regulation and governance of AI to keep humans in the driver’s seat and allow the gains to be distributed more broadly. What makes this different from those movements is that OpenAI is the one shouting from the rooftops. In essence, the company is calling itself out and holding itself accountable, along with other frontier labs and leading players in the AI industry. It’s also an example of the kind of forward-thinking ethical position that usually characterizes OpenAI’s No. 1 rival, Anthropic.Senior reporter Nat Rubio-Licht also contributed to this story.
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Axios: White knuckle truce

 
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By Mike Allen · Apr 08, 2026
Happy Wednesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,972 words … 7½ mins. Thanks to Neal Rothschild for orchestrating. Edited by Andrew Pantazi and Bill Kole.🛢️ Crude oil prices dropped sharply overnight, falling well under $100 per barrel after President Trump announced his two-week ceasefire, which Iran and Israel embraced, Axios’ Ben Geman writes.It’s the biggest one-day free fall since early COVID.
 
 
1 big thing: White-knuckle truce
 
Shia Muslims hold portraits of Iran’s slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei and his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei, during a procession in Karachi. Photo: Rizwan Tabassum/AFP via Getty

Backstory to the two-week ceasefire announced last evening: Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday with President Trump’s ultimatum looming, Axios’ Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler and Marc Caputo write.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move toward a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced.

U.S. forces in the Middle East and officials in the Pentagon spent those closing hours preparing for a massive bombing campaign on Iranian infrastructure, and trying to figure out where Trump was leaning. “We had no idea what was going to happen. It was wild,” a defense official said.

Allies in the region were bracing for Iranian retaliation on an unprecedented scale. Inside Iran, some civilians were fleeing their homes in an attempt to avoid the brunt of the strikes.

This account of the diplomacy that staved off that escalation, for now, is based on conversations with 11 sources with knowledge of the talks.

By Monday night, Pakistani mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. The sources said it was then up to Khamenei, actively involved in the process the past two days, to decide.

The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.

Two sources said Khamenei giving the negotiators his blessing to cut a deal was the “breakthrough.”

All major decisions the past two days went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.Today’s New York Post, New York Times.

How it happened: It was clear by yesterday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”

By around noon ET yesterday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.

At 6:32 p.m. ET, Trump announced “a double sided CEASEFIRE!”Screenshot: Truth Social 

What to watch: It remains to be seen to what degree Iran will allow shipping to resume or how steadfast Netanyahu will be in his adherence to the ceasefire.

A senior Israeli official told Axios that Netanyahu had received assurances the U.S. would insist in peace talks that Iran give up its nuclear material, cease enrichment, and abandon its ballistic missile threat.

Vice President JD Vance is likely to lead the U.S. delegation at talks planned for Friday in Pakistan — easily the most consequential assignment of his political career.

There are still major gaps between the U.S. and Iranian visions for a deal, leaving the very real possibility the war will resume.Share this story.
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Fortune: Investing. Is Bill Ackman like Warren Buffett?

 Is Bill Ackman like Warren Buffett?  The CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management cited a desire to unleash “long-term value” when making yesterday’s $64 billion bid to acquire Universal Music Group. He’s long admired the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who handed the CEO role to Greg Abel earlier this year.

And Ackman revived talk of creating a modern-day Berkshire last month when filing to list Pershing with a new fund on the New York Stock Exchange. As investors look at Pershing’s impending IPO as an alternative to Berkshire in the world of value investing, it’s worth comparing the two men and the companies they’ve built

Investing Approach Buffett has a six-decade track record of 20% compound annual returns to investors, roughly double the S&P 500. Ackman’s hedge fund has delivered similar returns since its 2004 launch, not including fees. But it’s a choppier journey when you’re an activist investor who names enemies, looks for problems to fix and wages war in public. Pershing’s turnover is double that of Berkshire, though both are relatively low, and it’s a fraction the size.

Ackman’s focus on fee growth and asset management is also more akin to Blackstone than Berkshire. Capital can be more nimble than a conglomerate. But Ackman’s UMG bid reinforces a philosophy embraced by Buffett, who prefers to buy “wonderful businesses at fair prices” and work privately with management to unlock value

Personal Brand – The differences in temperament and tactics are stark. It’s hard to compete with a billionaire who clips McDonald’s coupons and still lives in the house he bought for $31,500 in 1958. While Ackman says he turns off lights and drives around to look for cheap parking, I know who I’d cast for the role of George Bailey in It’s A Wonderful Life. Among other things, Buffett is polite, down to earth, and feels a civic duty to pay higher taxes.

Ackman is more polarizing, using his platform  to condemn DEI as anti-capitalist, speak out against tariffs, bet on political races, and take a hardball approach to “fixing things.”  An everyman, he’s not. Ackman’s unsuccessful campaign against Herbalife made him look out of touch, at least to those of us who had plenty of experience with multilevel-marketing companies.

Still, track record tends to trump personality when it comes to making money. Shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac jumped 40% the day after Ackman called them “stupidly cheap.”  Those who love Ackman, vitriol and all, probably don’t care if he morphs into Berkshire’s model as long as he delivers results.Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
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