Axios: Mystery trading patterns follow Trump. Personal comment: Let’s hope a band of people are now selected with the task of insider trading … highly illegal

Mystery trading patterns follow Trump
 
A column chart showing crude oil futures trading volume per minute from 6am to 8am Eastern on March 23, 2026. At 6:49 trading volume suddenly spiked from a few hundred contracts traded per minute to almost 3,000. At 7:05 am, Trump announced the deferment of strikes on Iran.Data: Yahoo Finance. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

An epidemic of suspicious trading has emerged around President Trump’s most consequential decisions, Axios’ Zachary Basu reports. 

On Monday, $580 million in oil futures flooded the market roughly 16 minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iranian power plants.

On the Friday before the war began, more than 150 Polymarket accounts placed hundreds of bets predicting a U.S. strike on Iran by the next day, according to a New York Times analysis (gift link).

On Jan. 2, a trader turned roughly $32,000 into more than $400,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro before it was announced the next morning.

Last April, a surge of bullish stock trades appeared minutes before Trump announced a 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day” tariffs. 

Zoom in: Because these accounts are anonymous, it’s unclear whether they involve insiders with advance knowledge, coordinated traders or independent speculators.

White House spokesman Kush Desai told Axios: “All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.

“There’s no evidence Trump knew about the suspicious trades or that any officials were involved.

More broadly, his presidency has coincided with business and investment activity involving allies, donors and family members, some of which has been historically lucrative.

For example, the Trump family’s crypto venture has generated billions — with investors including a Chinese crypto mogul who later settled his SEC fraud case, and an Emirati royal lobbying Washington for AI chips.

White House counsel David Warrington tells Axios: “The president has no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities.”“President Trump performs his constitutional duties in an ethically sound manner and to suggest otherwise is either ill-informed or malicious.”Share this story.
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