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The Spectator

@spectator

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30m

The United States is getting sucked into a conflict in the Middle East, central banks are desperately trying to keep inflation under control and the world is facing an energy shock that may cripple the global economy. There are lots of ways the world looks very similar to the early 1970s. And yet, it is now clear that there is also one significant difference between now and then. Whereas half a century ago, the oil cartel OPEC was rising in power, with Tuesday’s shock decision by the United Arab Emirates to quit the group, it is clear that it is falling apart. In reality, the US is taking back control of the fossil fuel industry – and that is of huge geopolitical significance.

Matthew Lynn Article | http://spectator.com/article/us-back-charge-oil-industry-uae-opec

As of April 2026, a series of AI-generated, “Lego-style” propaganda videos created by pro-Iranian groups have gone viral, targeting American political figures with animated, hip-hop-style diss tracks. These videos are designed to look like they were produced by The Lego Group but are actually part of a sophisticated digital “meme war”. Fortune +4

Key Aspects of the Iran Lego Rap Videos:

• The Content: The animated videos depict Lego-style characters in surreal, aggressive scenarios, often featuring hip-hop soundtracks, to mock U.S. politicians and officials, including Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump. Facebook +2
• The “King Charles” Connection: Some content discusses Trump interacting with international figures like King Charles III, with narratives asserting that U.S. officials are failing in their leadership. YouTube +1
• The Creators: The videos are reportedly produced by a team calling themselves “Explosive Media,” which has been described as a “student-led media team” that admits the Iranian regime is a “customer”. The New Yorker +1
• The Technology: They use AI tools, including ChatGPT, Grok, and Suno for lyrics and audio, and Sora-like video generators, to create these clips in about 24 hours. The New Yorker +1
• Platform Response: YouTube took down accounts associated with these videos for violating policies against “deceptive practices” and coordinated foreign influence campaigns. The New York Times

These videos are being used to push a narrative that Iran is resisting American pressure, utilizing pop culture to gain viral traction. Fortune +1

Trump just decided how this war ends, and it’s not how anyone expected… Trump has reportedly told his aides to prepare for an extended U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The president apparently sees both available off-ramps, pulling out of the conflict entirely or resuming combat operations, as carrying significantly more risk than maintaining the current naval blockade indefinitely. This follows separate reporting that the intelligence community was directed to assess the risks of declaring unilateral victory and pulling back from the conflict. Both data points point in the same direction.

Trump is choosing to settle into the standoff rather than force a resolution either way. The logic is brutal but coherent. Resuming bombing burns through more JASSM-ER missiles the Pentagon can’t replace for years, risks more American casualties, drives oil even higher heading into midterms, and almost certainly fails to extract the nuclear concession Iran refuses to make.

Walking away with no deal hands Iran a clean political victory and tells every adversary that American military pressure can be outwaited. Maintaining the blockade keeps the pressure on Tehran, slowly degrades the Iranian economy, and preserves Trump’s leverage for whenever a real diplomatic opening emerges.

But there’s a real cost to “indefinite blockade” as a strategy. American gas prices already at $4.18 don’t ease while the Strait stays effectively closed. Fertilizer prices stay 90% above pre-war levels. Global supply chains stay fractured. The Iran war might be morphing into a permanent low-intensity confrontation, with the U.S. Navy enforcing a blockade in perpetuity while Iran keeps boarding ships, deploying cyber attacks, and waiting for the political pressure on Trump to crack first. Source: WSJ

The UAE leaving OPEC is a major blow to the cartel’s pricing power. Here’s what it actually means. – The UAE is OPEC’s second-largest producer and can now pump freely with no output restrictions – Good for consumers in the short term: more supply, downward pressure on prices – Less clear for U.S. producers: cheaper oil globally means lower profits for Big Oil – The U.S. is energy independent but still imports roughly a third of its oil, including heavier crudes from the Middle East that American light crude can’t replace – The world was already oversupplied before the Iran war, so it’s unclear if long-term demand supports UAE’s extra production – The bigger picture: the Iran war is permanently reshaping global energy supply chains and the UAE exit may not be the last domino to fall Source: CNN Picture:

@abdoulaahmad