Axios: New risks rising

Posted on October 25, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
New risks rising
 
Illustration of a tornado filled with binary code
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
 
Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in his weekly C-Suite newsletter:

Eye-opening revelations this past week have solidified my personal fears about the year ahead: As a nation and as a globe, we’re facing a record number of wild risks that are way outside our control.

My growing hunch about this scenario has been bolstered by daily conversations with CEOs, government insiders and top investors.

Why it matters: It feels likely — not certain — that between now and 2028, we’ll face society-level disruptions, possibly including cyberattacks and fast-twitch economic shocks

🔭 What we’re facing: We’ve navigated single-shot crises like the financial meltdown of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020. This next year will be different. The real risk is a chain reaction: One shock sets off others — faster than we can process, and caused by AI dynamics we don’t fully understand.

Call it chain-reaction chaos.

And that’s against the backdrop of this age of post-processable velocity: The speed of change exceeds the ability of any individual, company, market or government to fully absorb, understand and respond.

The reason this scenario looks so likely is that so many obvious risks, all with relatively high probabilities, keep piling up. Any one of them will rock already highly volatile markets and politics:

💻 Cyber chaos. This past week was a big flashing siren. AI-detected flaws in PHP, the code behind millions of websites, knocked government sites offline worldwide and prompted the National Security Agency to warn organizations to patch immediately or go dark. Major banks found unauthorized AI agents inside customer accounts, some trying to take actions customers never asked for. And Anthropic’s deputy chief information security officer, Jason Clinton, warned that as bad as the past several days had been, cyber threats will get “a lot worse before they get better.” Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff quickly agreed, writing on X: “Code red.” As Madison Mills reported for Axios, the AI companies and the banks are scrambling for “day after” planning, fully anticipating a bigger cyber hit in coming months. People at top AI companies tell me the chances are well above 50%

🫧 AI bubble bursts (partially). This doesn’t feel like 1999, since giant companies with huge balance sheets are underwriting the AI boom. But that’s also the problem. They’re increasingly doing it with borrowed money: Goldman Sachs expects about a third of Big Tech’s AI capital expenditure to be debt-financed this year. A bubble doesn’t need to burst spectacularly to cause widespread economic and political pain. These companies are deeply intertwined, investing in, selling to and buying from each other. Look what happened with Meta this past week: It crushed its earnings, but then spooked the market by detailing the difficulties of raising capital to fund AI. Any sign of overbuilding … or companies underusing AI … or China catching up … or AI prices collapsing … or credit costs spiking … or the political backlash intensifying, and markets could tumble fast. A sharp correction feels like a 50%+ short-term scenario

🦾 AI hits true RSI. AI could get better, faster than almost anyone anticipates via recursive self-improvement (RSI). People inside Anthropic, OpenAI and Google see this unfolding now. This could be awesome long-term if we steer the technology smartly. But it could also prove wildly disruptive in 2027: More advanced AI would pose a more urgent threat to industries, companies and jobs. You could easily see this enticing Democrats to join Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in demanding a slowdown or full pause, which would rattle markets

🛢️ War expands, oil spikes. President Trump’s aides believe he’s likely to resume the Iran war post-election. The Iranians warn they would expand their targets in retaliation. The U.S. reduced staffing at embassies across the Middle East amid increased threats. Escalation feels more likely than not at the very moment oil supplies are tight and gas and diesel prices are very high. Imagine the economic pain of sustained $120-a-barrel oil

🏛️ An aging, unrestrained president. I want to be clear here: This isn’t a political statement or Trump health appraisal. I’d write the same for Joe Biden. It’s a simple, fact-based observation based on actuarial tables. Trump, age 80, heads into the next two years as the oldest person ever to be president. It’s a medical certainty that the chances of mental decline and incapacitation rise dramatically in your 80s. Trump is much like Biden in that he doesn’t have people around him who can level with him. The risk stretches from health episodes to judgments about war and the limits of presidential power.

The bottom line: It’s easy to argue any one of these won’t materialize. But when you add up this many risks, the overall chance of a crisis outside our direct control is spiking by the day.

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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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