Axios: Why an Iran deal looks unlikely

Posted on October 2, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
 📵 Why an Iran deal looks unlikely
 
Photo illustration of a collage featuring a divided frame with nested rectangles, which contain images of a U.S. aircraft carrier and fighter jet, and a civilian ship, in the Strait of Hormuz, and Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump.
Photo Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: Getty Images
 
The Trump administration and the Iranian regime both say they prefer a diplomatic solution to the war, but a deal looks more elusive than ever.

Here’s a look at some of the deep-seated dynamics between the two countries — personal, cultural and political — that have stymied efforts to broker a deal, via Axios’ Barak Ravid:

🕰️ Timing: The two countries see the timeframe for negotiations very differently.

“America under Trump is the attention-deficit superpower … incapable of sustaining a strategy,” Karim Sadjadpour, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, told Axios.

“Iran under the Islamic Republic is the obsessive-compulsive theocracy, fixated on resisting America far more than advancing the welfare of its own people.”

🪄 Showmanship: Trump loves a splashy show of political theater, with him cast as lead actor. The Iranians prefer a narrow, transactional deal that’s negotiated indirectly — or with the lowest public profile possible.

“Trump and his negotiators pride themselves on being dealmakers. In Iranian political culture, the word for compromiser — ‘sazeshkar’ — is practically a slur,” Sadjadpour said.

🤝 Mistrust: This is the fundamental impediment in the negotiations.

The Iranians claim Trump cheated them twice when he attacked them in the middle of talks. Many inside the regime think any more engagement with the U.S. is just a ruse to mask preparations for a surprise attack.

The U.S. side counters that Iran cheated when it violated the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz

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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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