Axios: 1 big thing: Grocery apocalypse

Posted on August 30, 2026 by michelleclarke2015

1 big thing: Grocery apocalypse
 
Illustration of a large red arrow breaking up through grocery shelves and knocking items off.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
 
America’s grocery squeeze has been felt most painfully in expensive categories like beef, coffee and chocolate.

But new forces are pushing up food prices across the board: expensive grain, soaring fertilizer and fuel prices, plus unpredictable weather and raging wars, Axios’ Erica Pandey writes.

Why it matters: The next grocery price shock could hit much harder — and wider. And midterms are 65 days away.

🌎 The big picture: Your grocery store is fed by a vast global supply chain, and pressures are building all along it.

The Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars have driven up diesel prices, making it more expensive to operate harvesting equipment and to truck food from suppliers to stores.

The Iran war has disrupted fertilizer supplies and prices, since a large share of the world’s fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

This past week, corn and wheat prices hit their highest level in three years. Bad weather has hit corn crop yields, and the Russia-Ukraine war has roiled wheat exports.

🌾 Friction point: Wheat’s a key ingredient in pantry staples, and corn is a major animal feed. So as they go up, so can meat, dairy and eggs.

The intrigue: Don’t assume those soaring commodity prices are a bonanza for farmers, either.

They’re still getting squeezed by all the other crises. Even the president of the National Corn Growers Association told Axios Future of Energy author Ben Geman that he himself wouldn’t be profitable this year.

🥩 Add all these pressures to the list of already inflated food items:

Instant coffee is up 15.8% year-over-year; tomatoes, 12.8%; beef roasts, 13.5%; apples, 11.1%.

In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, about three-quarters of people said grocery prices are still rising where they live.

Threat level: There’s reason to believe it’s only going to get worse.

J.P. Morgan analysts warned in a report this month that global food inflation would hit 5% in the first half of 2027, nearly doubling this year’s rate.

“Price pressures are expected to extend through [the first half of 2027], as crop and price effects are still building and agricultural impacts lag the oceanic peak by 6 to 12 months,” they wrote.

The bottom line: These forces don’t drive up your grocery budget overnight. But compounding strains on the cost of growing, harvesting and transporting food could make an already expensive grocery run even more expensive.
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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