Axios: Trump’s Iran climbdown

Trump’s Iran climbdown
 
President Trump signs the Iran memorandum of understanding at Versailles. Screenshot: White House via X

President Trump made the case for his deal with Iran during an hourlong press conference yesterday, while seeming to lower his own bar for success and warning he could bomb Iran again if nuclear talks fail, Axios’ Barak Ravid writes.

Why it matters: For two months, Trump has been seeking a deal to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize global energy markets.

This deal should achieve that. But some of Trump’s critics argue that making concessions just to return to status quo ante shows the war itself was a costly mistake.

🖼️ The big picture: Before the war and as it got underway, Trump laid out highly ambitious parameters for any successful resolution with Iran.

That included “total surrender” and the full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. No enrichment, no ballistic missiles, no funding for proxies. Trump even wanted a say in picking the supreme leader.

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) — which Trump signed yesterday and senior administration officials finally unveiled on a call with reporters — is a much more modest agreement.

Breaking it down: Iran gets sanctions relief to sell oil, the strait reopens, the blockade lifts.

The parties also give themselves 60 days to negotiate a nuclear deal. Iran could see all sanctions lifted and receive billions in frozen funds and investments, if it agrees to limit its nuclear program and “dispose of” its stockpile.

Trump and his team acknowledge a final deal may never happen. But he claimed yesterday that “if it doesn’t get done in 60 days, we go back to bombing.” (He later said the deadline could shift.)

Uncharacteristically, Trump downplayed the deal somewhat, noting that it was just a memorandum. He further enraged hawks by expressing sympathy for Iran’s desire to possess missiles and pursue nuclear energy.World leaders at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, on Tuesday. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
💥 Friction point: There’s plenty in the deal for critics to sink their teeth into.

It only calls on Iran to open the strait without restrictions for 60 days, leaving open the possibility of tolls after that. A senior U.S. official told reporters that wouldn’t happen, because Gulf countries wouldn’t sign up to any deal that allowed it.

The MOU calls for a plan to establish a $300 billion fund to rebuild Iran. Trump denied that the U.S. would contribute money to such a fund.

The text makes clear that Iran will receive sanctions waivers to sell oil freely as long as negotiations are ongoing.

The MOU says nothing about Iran’s ballistic missiles or support for terrorist organizations and militias in the region, despite Trump’s insistence — dating back to his first term — that any deal with Iran would have to cover those issues.

📱 Watch the White House’s 35-second video of Trump signing the Iran memo of understanding at Versailles.Share this story.
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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