Axios: Trump’s Cuba war games

Posted on May 28, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
 Scoop: Trump’s Cuba war games
 
Photo illustration of a collage featuring Donald Trump over a map focusing on Cuba, and red triangles and blue, red, and yellow stripes.
Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
 
The Trump administration is bracing for the potential collapse of Cuba’s totalitarian government as early as this summer, and has war-gamed military response plans in case the island descends into chaos, U.S. officials tell Axios’ Marc Caputo.

Why it matters: President Trump hasn’t authorized an invasion and prefers a peaceful transition to a free Cuba. So the administration will keep pushing economic sanctions to try to strangle the regime in Havana in a slow-motion constriction.

“The best way to describe it is ‘accelerationism,'” a senior administration official said, referring to hastening societal collapse.
“But we don’t want to kill off the regime just yet. There’s a method to this. It’s in stages.”

🔎 Zoom in: This methodical squeezing of Cuba’s communist regime aims to buy time for Trump, engrossed in peace talks with Iran, to eventually focus on Cuba.

“Iran’s not finished, and the president is not in a rush,” another senior administration official said. “Trump wants to exhaust all the levers that he can. But at this point, there aren’t as many levers as before.”

A third senior administration official said: “We have a pretty deep toolbox, especially when it comes to sanctions and enforcing them. More is on the way.

“The big picture: The Cuba operation aims to eliminate the wellspring of Latin American Marxist agitation and anti-U.S. activism, ever since Fidel and Raúl Castro led their successful revolution in 1959.

To bring Cuba to its knees this year, the administration first targeted the island’s lifeline: Venezuela and its socialist leader, Nicolás Maduro, who kept Havana afloat with oil shipments that powered the country and gave it export revenue. 

Inside the room: Last month, U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military operations in the Caribbean, held a multiagency “tabletop” exercise to prepare for military action in Cuba, one of the senior administration officials said.

“Everything is on the table, but no invasion is planned or imminent,” the official said. “When POTUS says go, we’re ready for anything.

“In the exercise, another source said, U.S. officials discussed Cuba’s possession of drones and how to respond to possible unrest in the sweltering Cuban heat as spring turns to summer.

“It’s going to be hot,” the source said. “People won’t have electricity. Food spoils without refrigeration. People get angry. They can take to the streets. And then what happens? I can’t see the president doing nothing if there’s repression.”

Another source, a Trump adviser, disagreed: “The president does not want boots on the ground for more than 48 hours. It’s a quagmire in the making. This could get messy.

“One presidential adviser said the approach to Cuba is “classic Trump: Push your enemy off balance. It’s pressure, watch the response, apply more pressure, watch the response, apply more pressure.

“One of the officials said: “We have time. The regime doesn’t.”Go deeper: 3 crucial differences between Cuba and Venezuela.
    

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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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