The oil market just crossed the breaking point and there’s no playbook for what comes next.
The Strait of Hormuz closure knocked out 11 to 13 million barrels a day, roughly 4 times larger than any supply outage in history, and analysts at HFI Research say we are already past the point of no return.
The sequence goes like this: refineries start running low on crude, they bid aggressively to secure whatever is left, prices stop moving in a straight line and go parabolic, and then at some point demand just… collapses on its own because people can’t afford it anymore.
Asia gets hit first and hardest since it depends most on Hormuz flows, and here’s the brutal part: even if the Strait reopened today, actual oil deliveries to Asia wouldn’t resume until mid-July.
The only thing that could offset a shortage this size would be COVID-style government lockdowns, and nobody is ordering those. Without lockdowns, the only mechanism left is prices rising until people simply can’t afford fuel anymore. At which point the economy breaks itself.
HFI’s honest conclusion: they have no idea where prices settle, and neither does anyone else There is simply no historical precedent for what is happening right now. Source: HFI Research
Pakistan to CBS: Stop the BS, we didn’t shelter any Iranian planes during the war
CBS claimed some of Iran’s military fleet was stationed at Pakistan’s Nur Khan Airbase, saying it was to shield them from U.S airstrikes.
Pakistan’s government said only non-military aircraft arrived for the peace talks, and some of them remained there because elements of Iran’s delegation stayed on, expecting further talks.
The planes “bear no linkage whatsoever to any military contingency or preservation arrangement.”
Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
canisgallicus 