In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer breaks down the rapidly unraveling situation following the US announcement of “Project Freedom” and why tensions with Iran are escalating again.
Ian explains that Iran’s swift retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz, including targeting ships and launching drones and missiles at the UAE, wasn’t just about disruption. It was a calculated signal: Tehran is prepared to escalate to keep the strait closed unless a deal is reached, while also deepening divisions among Gulf States.
Ian highlights a growing split in the region. The UAE, aligned with Israel, favors continued pressure on Iran, while Saudi Arabia is pushing for de-escalation and regional stability. “These are very different models,” Ian notes, underscoring how diverging interests are reshaping alliances.
For the US, the options are narrowing. A military response risks broader regional damage, while inaction could fuel further instability and rising oil prices. Ian argues the “least worst outcome” is to wind down the conflict and pursue global negotiations, but he warns that political pressure and sunk costs may push Washington in the opposite direction.
“The likelihood that this ceasefire… breaks down and leads to another round of very serious fighting… looks more likely today,” Ian says.
Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
canisgallicus 