Axios: America’s bleak milestone

America’s bleak milestone
 
A line chart that compares quarterly U.S. GDP and debt held by the public from Q1 1970 to Q1 2026. GDP rises from $1.05 trillion in Q1 1970 to $31.86 trillion in Q1 2026, but public debt surpasses narrowly surpasses it.Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Treasury Department. Chart: Neil Irwin/AxiosThe United States crossed a symbolic threshold: The national debt is now larger than its GDP. Axios’ Neil Irwin makes sense of the significance:

There’s nothing inherently unsustainable about a 100% debt-to-GDP level.

What matters is why it got that high, the prospects for future borrowing, and the forecast for growth and borrowing costs.

Across those dimensions, the U.S. fiscal outlook is exceptionally gloomy, in ways not reflected in much of the day-to-day political discourse.

Zoom in: Consider a family with $100,000 in debt and an annual income of $100,000. Is their debt excessive? It depends.

If the family ran up that debt due to one-time expenses that won’t recur and has a low interest rate, rising income and day-to-day spending in line with what they bring in, they’re probably fine.

If, on the other hand, they ran up that debt to support routine living expenses in excess of their earnings and have a high interest rate and stagnant income, it would raise serious alarms.

Threat alert: The U.S. government is closer to the second scenario.Share this story.
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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