Axios: The year that shook the Gulf

The year that shook the Gulf
 
Illustration of a map of the Gulf with abstract images of barbed wire, Saudi Riyals, UAE Dirhams, and a silhouette of two Arab businessmen talking.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
 
The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC. Saudi Arabia is ending its splashiest foreign sports venture. The two U.S. allies are in the midst of a messy divorce, even as both face fire from Iran.

Why it matters: One year after President Trump’s grand tour of the Gulf, the region’s vision of a geopolitically stable post-oil future — powered by tourism, AI and American capital — has taken a major blow, Axios’ Dave Lawler, Barak Ravid and Zachary Basu write.

The trillions of dollars in investment pledges that Trump secured on his trip are in limbo.So is the American “golden age” he claimed would be bankrolled in part with Gulf money.

The big picture: Trump’s trip may prove the high-water mark for the idea that the future of AI, global investment and geopolitics would all flow through the Gulf.

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s exit from LIV Golf, after pouring more than $5 billion into the PGA competitor since 2022, is the first major casualty of the kingdom rationing cash as oil exports sink.

No one is rushing to build $20 billion data centers in Saudi Arabia or the UAE after Iran proved it can strike them with cheap drones, as Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez told Axios.

Gulf leaders have spent a generation perfecting the Dubai model — selling stability as a luxury good to foreign tourists, expats and investors. Iran’s attacks on luxury hotels and airports have undercut that premise.

Friction point: The UAE’s break from the Saudi-led oil cartel is the latest fracture in a regional rivalry driven by clashing alliances and views on Yemen, Sudan and Palestine, as well as personal animosity between the two leaders. The Iran war has only deepened the rift.

Behind the scenes: The Trump administration was slow to grasp how serious that rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia had become — and chose not to get involved as it deepened, U.S. and regional sources told Axios.

Senior officials are deeply concerned that Washington’s two most important Arab allies will emerge from the war more adversarial than ever.

Reality check: The Gulf states still have deep reserves of energy and capital, plus a security relationship with Washington that the war has only strengthened.

Some analysts see the Iran crisis as a temporary shock for the Gulf economies, not an existential crisis.

The bottom line: A year after his Gulf tour, Trump’s promised investment bonanza has collided with the consequences of his Iran war. Fixing the damage may take longer than the time he has left in office.Share this story.
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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