Trump just decided how this war ends, and it’s not how anyone expected… Trump has reportedly told his aides to prepare for an extended U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The president apparently sees both available off-ramps, pulling out of the conflict entirely or resuming combat operations, as carrying significantly more risk than maintaining the current naval blockade indefinitely. This follows separate reporting that the intelligence community was directed to assess the risks of declaring unilateral victory and pulling back from the conflict. Both data points point in the same direction.
Trump is choosing to settle into the standoff rather than force a resolution either way. The logic is brutal but coherent. Resuming bombing burns through more JASSM-ER missiles the Pentagon can’t replace for years, risks more American casualties, drives oil even higher heading into midterms, and almost certainly fails to extract the nuclear concession Iran refuses to make.
Walking away with no deal hands Iran a clean political victory and tells every adversary that American military pressure can be outwaited. Maintaining the blockade keeps the pressure on Tehran, slowly degrades the Iranian economy, and preserves Trump’s leverage for whenever a real diplomatic opening emerges.
But there’s a real cost to “indefinite blockade” as a strategy. American gas prices already at $4.18 don’t ease while the Strait stays effectively closed. Fertilizer prices stay 90% above pre-war levels. Global supply chains stay fractured. The Iran war might be morphing into a permanent low-intensity confrontation, with the U.S. Navy enforcing a blockade in perpetuity while Iran keeps boarding ships, deploying cyber attacks, and waiting for the political pressure on Trump to crack first. Source: WSJ
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