Axios: Trump’s Cold War

Trump’s Cold War
 
Illustration of an iced and frozen grenade.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
 
The Iran conflict has entered a Cold War-like phase of financial sanctions, gunboat interdictions and talks about having talks, Axios’ Marc Caputo and Barak Ravid write.

Why it matters: The conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate, all but assuring higher energy prices for months — and leaving President Trump with the costs of the war but little of the political upside of ending it.

Several U.S. officials told Axios they’re concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal. In this scenario, the U.S. would have to keep its forces in the region for many more months. The Strait of Hormuz would stay closed. The U.S. blockade would remain, and both sides would continue waiting for the other to blink or fire first.

With the midterms now six months away, “a frozen conflict is the worst thing for Trump politically and economically,” a source close to the president said.👀 

Inside the room: President Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes and waiting to see whether his “maximum pressure” sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, according to five advisers who have spoken with him.

“All [Iran’s leaders] understand is bombs,” Trump recently told one adviser, who relayed the comment to Axios.“I would describe him as frustrated but realistic,” the adviser said. “He doesn’t want to use force. But he’s not backing down.

Some of Trump’s senior advisers want him to maintain the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for now — and impose more economic sanctions to pressure the Iranian regime — before going back to bombing.

Trump is also consulting with hawks outside the administration, including Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). All are advising Trump to take some kind of military action to try to break the deadlock.🔎 

Zoom in: Trump discussed the Iranian proposal with his national security team yesterday. Iran offered to negotiate a side deal to open the Strait of Hormuz in return for the U.S. dropping its blockade of ships coming and going from Iran.

A U.S. official and two other sources briefed on the meeting said no decisions were made.

One source said Trump didn’t seem inclined to accept Iran’s proposal because it would postpone talks over that nation’s nuclear program — the elimination of which has been Trump’s chief reason for attacking Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has ramped up the maximum pressure sanctions campaign targeting financial institutions, shipping companies and even “teapot” refiners in China that process sanctioned Iranian oil.

“This is maximum pressure everywhere and from all angles,” a senior administration official said. “That could mean military action, too. It might not. It’s up to the president.”
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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