Two months into the Iran war, the shooting has stopped … for now.
In #QuickTake, Ian Bremmer explains that the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding, with both sides avoiding direct confrontation while continuing to apply pressure in other ways. The US blockade remains in place, and Iran is still disrupting key shipping routes, underscoring just how tenuous the situation really is. Subscribe to GZERO’s YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔): / @gzeromedia Sign up for GZERO’s free newsletters on global politics: https://www.gzeromedia.com/subscribe
Ian Bremmer expects talks to move forward and even produce what looks like a breakthrough. President Trump is highly motivated to find an off-ramp, especially given how unpopular the war has become, and the risks tied to further escalation. But a headline announcement is not the same as a lasting agreement. As Ian puts it, “it is fully within Trump’s capacity to announce that the war is over… but that is very different from implementing a deal.” Both sides are still engaged in a high-stakes contest of leverage. The United States is trying to constrain Iran economically without triggering a wider conflict, while Iran retains the ability to impose real costs on global markets and regional stability with relatively limited means. That imbalance makes any ceasefire inherently fragile. Even if negotiations produce progress, the deeper challenges remain unresolved. Internal divisions within Iran’s leadership, competing interests across the region, and Trump’s tendency to overstate agreements all increase the risk that any deal could unravel. For now, a diplomatic “yes” may be coming, but a durable peace is much harder to achieve.
Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
canisgallicus 