Axios: Trump’s tipping point

Trump’s tipping point
 
Photo illustration of President Donald Trump in a collage featuring a mural of Iran's slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supporters of the  Houthi movement brandishing their weapons, the Strait of Hormuz, and radar and clock elements
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Getty Images
 
President Trump faces a momentous decision on a tight timeline: Carry out his threat to obliterate Iran’s infrastructure beginning tonight at 8 p.m. ET, or push his deadline again to give negotiations a chance, Axios’ Barak Ravid writes.

Why it matters: Trump has threatened to destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran, among other options that would have devastating consequences for ordinary Iranians and spark retaliation across the region.

Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are working to avert that outcome by brokering a deal — or at least putting time back on the clock.

“If the president sees a deal is coming together, he’ll probably hold off. But only he and he alone makes that decision,” a senior administration official told Axios. A defense official said they were “skeptical” there would be any extension this time around.

This account is based on interviews with six officials and sources with direct knowledge of the ongoing diplomacy or Trump’s thinking. 

Behind the scenes: Trump might be the most hawkish person in the top echelons of his administration on Iran, according to a U.S. source who spoke to him several times in recent days.

“The president is the most bloodthirsty, like a mad dog,” another U.S. official said, downplaying stories that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or Secretary of State Marco Rubio were egging him on. “Those guys sound like the doves compared to the president.

Trump has started sounding out advisers and confidants about the plan to strike power plants and bridges by asking them: “What do you think of Infrastructure Day?

Breaking it down: Trump’s negotiating team — Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — thinks he should try to get a deal now if possible.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and political allies like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) are urging Trump not to agree to a ceasefire unless Iran makes concessions that currently appear unlikely, like reopening the Strait of Hormuz or relinquishing all highly enriched uranium.

The other side: Iran gave a 10-point response to the current peace proposals yesterday.

A U.S. official described it as “maximalist,” but the White House saw it as a negotiating gambit, not a rejection.

The mediators told the White House they’re working with the Iranians on amendments and redrafting. They also cautioned that Iranian decision-making is very slow, so an extension of the deadline might be needed.

Trump’s advisers told the mediators the president needs to see positive indications from the Iranians to consider an extension. 

Trump laid out a dire vision of Iran’s near future during his press conference, while adding that a deal was still possible.

“The entire country could be taken out in one night, and it might be tomorrow night,” Trump said.

“We have a plan where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o’clock tomorrow night. Where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again. I mean complete demolition by 12 o’clock, and it will happen over a period of four hours if we wanted to,” Trump said. “We don’t want that to happen.

On the other hand, Trump said negotiations were “going fine” and stressed the U.S. has “an active, willing participant on the other side” that is “negotiating in good faith.”Share this story.
 

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Reposted by Alistair Campbell: From the “Art of the Deal” to “Trump Business Deals”

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In this video, consultant psychiatrist Dr Raj Persaud explains how a psychiatrist would actually assess a statement like this.

LONDON

Donald Trump’s expletive-filled message about Iran has led many commentators to claim this is proof he is having a mental breakdown.

In this video, consultant psychiatrist Dr Raj Persaud explains how a psychiatrist would actually assess a statement like this.

Drawing on clinical experience, Raj breaks down the difference between psychosis, delusions, hallucinations, extreme frustration, and poor mental health under pressure — and asks whether this message really shows insanity, or something else.

He also examines what the statement may reveal about the reality of negotiations with Iran, the limits of US military leverage, and the wider psychological question of whether there is any real safety net around a President who may be sliding into instability.

This is a psychiatric analysis of behaviour and language in the public domain, not a formal diagnosis.

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Anonymous warning … Have you heard of Malignant narcissism … “meteor heading towards earth”

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Short Profound and watch to the end.

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….”Total humiliation for Washington …”

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Financial Crash Expert: In 3 months We’ll Enter a Famine! if Iran … The Diary of a CEO interviews Professor Steve Keen

Apr 6, 2026 New Episodes

He predicted the 2008 crash, now Professor Steve Keen warns the Iran war is coming for your food prices. Professor Steve Keen is the world’s first rebel economist to predict the 2008 financial crisis years before it happened, based on his proprietary data software, Ravel©. He has spent over 30 years as an academic, and is currently a visiting scholar at the University of Amsterdam. He explains: ◼ Why your food prices could double and the one resource nobody is talking about ◼ The 5 ways this war could end and which scenario keeps you safest ◼ How one 20km gap controls your phone, your heating, and your food ◼ Why nobody around Trump will tell him he’s losing and what that means for you ◼ How AI could wipe out half of all jobs and what you should do right now 00:00

Intro 02:35 Why Does Your Perspective Matters Now 03:01 What’s Really Driving Tensions Between The US, Israel, And Iran 07:46 Why Israel Might See Iran As An Existential Threat 12:46 The Strait Of Hormuz—And What Happens If It Closes 16:40 Where Fertilizer Comes From—And What A Shortage Would Trigger 18:27 Why Oil Still Controls Everything—And The Cost Of Running Out 21:29 What Happens If This War Doesn’t End Quickly 22:13 The Real Cause Behind The Global Cost Of Living Crisis 25:38 Do Wars Widen The Gap Between Rich And Poor 29:58 Five Scenarios That Could Shape What Happens Next 30:10 Scenario 1: What Happens If Iran Is Destroyed 33:21 Scenario 2: The Fallout If Gulf Infrastructure Collapses 37:51 Scenario 3: The Samson Doctrine—And When It’s Used 44:53 Scenario 4: Could Iran Neutralize Israel’s Nukes 51:41 What Trump Really Wants—And The Fear Behind It 53:32 Will The US Put Troops On The Ground 56:31 What The Best-Case Scenario Actually Looks Like 59:23 Scenario 5: What Changes If Iran Goes Nuclear 01:01:00 Why Self-Sufficiency Might Be The Only Safety Net 01:03:59 What Could Trigger The Next Financial Crash 01:08:17 How To Survive Another Boom-And-Bust Cycle 01:09:45 Universal Basic Income—And Who It Really Helps 01:12:45 How AI Is Quietly Rewriting The Job Market 01:21:46 Is Bitcoin Headed To Zero 01:26:35 What Kind Of Leaders Do We Actually Need 01:28:34 What A Better System Could Look Like 01:30:37 What’s Broken In Capitalism—And Can It Be Fixed Enjoyed the episode? Share this link and earn points for every referral – redeem them for exclusive prizes: https://doac-perks.com

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GZERO World: Ian Bremmer. What a Viktor Orban loss would for Trump?

Apr 6, 2026 #gzeroworld#orban#hungary

Political scientist Ivan Krastev joins Ian Bremmer to explain why the Hungarian election on April 12th may be the most consequential vote in Europe this year, and what an Orbán loss would mean for Trump, Putin, and the global far right.

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Hungary is a country of 10 million people, but what happens there on April 12th could reverberate far beyond its borders. In this week’s episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with political scientist and Centre for Liberal Strategies Chairman Ivan Krastev to break down the stakes of the upcoming Hungarian elections.

Viktor Orbán has ruled Hungary for sixteen years, building a political model rooted in EU skepticism, economic ties with China and Russia, and a close alliance with the MAGA movement. Now he faces his strongest challenger yet: Péter Magyar, a conservative former insider whose anti-corruption message has pulled him ahead in the polls.

Krastev traces Orbán’s political arc from pro-democratic dissident to nationalist strongman, explains why his real economic patron is Beijing rather than Washington. He also breaks down what an Orbán loss would mean for EU policy on Ukraine, for Europe’s far-right parties, and for Trump’s political brand abroad. “For President Trump and for President Putin,” Krastev says, “Orbán losing is going to be their personal loss.”

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GZERODAILY


Today, we examine the US’s colossal defense spending, efforts to tackle gang violence in Haiti, Hungary’s upcoming election, and what astronauts know about spheres of influence (around the moon).

– The Daily crew

China has boosted its defense spending 13-fold over the past three decades, modernizing its weapons and military into a force capable of operating beyond its borders. The buildup isn’t happening in isolation. Military spending in the Middle East climbed to 4.3% of the region’s GDP last year, up from 3.5% in 2022, driven in part by Israel after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Across Europe, meanwhile, governments led by Germany are ramping up defense budgets at a record pace.

Even so, none of them comes close to the United States.

In the 2025 fiscal year, Washington spent $921 billion on its military, nearly as much as the next 14 largest defense budgets in the world combined, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. And the gap could widen soon.

On Friday, the White House requested an eye-popping $1.5 trillion defense budget for the 2027 fiscal year. That’s a 44% jump from the year prior. If Congress approves it, the US would post its highest military spending in modern history.

Where would the money go? Bolstering munitions, expanding the US naval fleet, and kicking off construction of the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, for starters. The administration’s ask also appears to be separate from the $200 billion requested for its fight against Iran.

Other nations are also opening their wallets. China plans to raise military spending 7% this year amid tensions with Japan over Taiwan. Germany is set to spend $127 billion on defense in 2026 (and could soon dwarf Britain and France put together) in response to Moscow’s aggression and Washington’s disinterest in protecting the continent through NATO. India is hiking its own military budget after last year’s flare-up with its neighbor, Pakistan.

But in the defense race, the scoreboard isn’t close. When it comes to military spending, the United States is still playing in a league of its own.

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Axios: Age of asymmetry …. Quote: “One person orchestrating a team of AI agents can now do company-sized work. Just about anything”

Age of AI asymmetry
 
Illustration of a keyboard with keys breaking and falling off balanced on a pyramid shape
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
 
The most consequential force reshaping geopolitics and business can be captured in one word: asymmetry, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in his new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.

The small can now destroy the big. The cheap can neutralize the expensive.

Drones proved it on the battlefield. AI is proving it everywhere else.

Why it matters: Every CEO now faces the same question the Pentagon does: Are you the $3 million missile or the $35,000 drone? 

Lessons from war: Iran and Ukraine, both outgunned on paper, turned cheap drones into strategic equalizers. They mass-produce weapons at $20K–$50K a pop and unleash them with missile-like precision. Both Russia and America are now racing to build their own.

We’ve shot down drones that cost less than a used car with $3 million missiles that take years to build. That’s structurally unsustainable.

Lessons for corporate America: AI is the drone. A sprawling org chart is the Patriot missile.

All businesses face a looming rethink: What are the smallest teams, fewest steps and quickest paths to do everything at every layer?

15 people can now do what 150 did. The most dangerous unit in business is no longer the biggest division — it’s the small team with proven AI leverage.

The old playbook: Throw headcount at the problem.

The new playbook? Give a tight team the right tools and get out of the way.

Look around. The companies winning right now aren’t the biggest. They’re the leanest and fastest. A can’t-ignore example:

Coefficient Bio: An 8-month-old, 9-person biotech AI startup that just got acquired by Anthropic for roughly $400M. This happened so fast because what they built is how you think through drug development, not a drug itself.

The bottom line: This shift is great news for any individual with a big idea.

One person orchestrating a team of AI agents can now do company-sized work. Just about anything is possible.Share this story.📈 If you’re a CEO or on a CEO’s team: Ask to join the beta of Jim’s brand-new, weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.
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