Axios: Newoil order

New oil order
 
Illustration of a pump jack holding a planet Earth.
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser / Axios
 
The energy shock from the Iran war may drive long-lasting change in how the global multitrillion-dollar oil market operates — turning a relatively open and smoothly functioning system into something weaponized and fractured, Axios Markets author Emily Peck writes.

Why it matters: Such a reordering would mean, at a minimum, higher energy prices and inflation. In the long term, it could shake the foundations of the dollar-based global economy and, with it, U.S. power. The latest: Iran still has the Strait of Hormuz effectively locked down.

The price of oil is now about 50% higher than before the war began.


A bar chart that compares major global oil supply disruptions by the share of world supply removed. The Iran war in 2026 is highest at 16%. The 1990 Iraq invasion of Kuwait and the 1973 oil embargo each reached 8%, while the 2011 Libya war and 2022 Ukraine invasion were 2%.Data: Baringa. Chart: Amy Harder/Axios

Flashback: Such shocks in the past have led to permanent changes in the global economy. There’s little reason to think this one would be different.

The pandemic drove a push among countries to reshore manufacturing.

The Ukraine war forced European countries to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas.

The 1970s oil crisis got Americans to actually drive small cars.

Between the lines: Wars can also shift global power. The Suez Crisis of 1956 — another disruption in a key Middle East waterway — is seen as the moment when the U.K. lost its standing as a global superpower.

Some war critics argue this could be America’s “Suez moment.” (N.Y. Times gift link)
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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