Axios: White knuckle truce

Posted on April 8, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
 
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Axios AM
By Mike Allen · Apr 08, 2026
Happy Wednesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,972 words … 7½ mins. Thanks to Neal Rothschild for orchestrating. Edited by Andrew Pantazi and Bill Kole.🛢️ Crude oil prices dropped sharply overnight, falling well under $100 per barrel after President Trump announced his two-week ceasefire, which Iran and Israel embraced, Axios’ Ben Geman writes.It’s the biggest one-day free fall since early COVID.
 
 
1 big thing: White-knuckle truce
 
Shia Muslims hold portraits of Iran’s slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei and his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei, during a procession in Karachi. Photo: Rizwan Tabassum/AFP via Getty

Backstory to the two-week ceasefire announced last evening: Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday with President Trump’s ultimatum looming, Axios’ Barak Ravid, Dave Lawler and Marc Caputo write.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move toward a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.

The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn’t know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced.

U.S. forces in the Middle East and officials in the Pentagon spent those closing hours preparing for a massive bombing campaign on Iranian infrastructure, and trying to figure out where Trump was leaning. “We had no idea what was going to happen. It was wild,” a defense official said.

Allies in the region were bracing for Iranian retaliation on an unprecedented scale. Inside Iran, some civilians were fleeing their homes in an attempt to avoid the brunt of the strikes.

This account of the diplomacy that staved off that escalation, for now, is based on conversations with 11 sources with knowledge of the talks.

By Monday night, Pakistani mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. The sources said it was then up to Khamenei, actively involved in the process the past two days, to decide.

The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.

Two sources said Khamenei giving the negotiators his blessing to cut a deal was the “breakthrough.”

All major decisions the past two days went through Khamenei. “Without his green light, there wouldn’t have been a deal,” the regional source said.Today’s New York Post, New York Times.

How it happened: It was clear by yesterday morning that progress was being made, but that didn’t stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”

By around noon ET yesterday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.

At 6:32 p.m. ET, Trump announced “a double sided CEASEFIRE!”Screenshot: Truth Social 

What to watch: It remains to be seen to what degree Iran will allow shipping to resume or how steadfast Netanyahu will be in his adherence to the ceasefire.

A senior Israeli official told Axios that Netanyahu had received assurances the U.S. would insist in peace talks that Iran give up its nuclear material, cease enrichment, and abandon its ballistic missile threat.

Vice President JD Vance is likely to lead the U.S. delegation at talks planned for Friday in Pakistan — easily the most consequential assignment of his political career.

There are still major gaps between the U.S. and Iranian visions for a deal, leaving the very real possibility the war will resume.Share this story.
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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