| This Monday, we published an investigation showing how European know-how, labor, and resources feed into the supply chains that keep Russia’s military production humming.The story traced the origins of Russian aluminum, a critical input for the country’s war factories. As it turns out, much of a key raw material, alumina, is supplied by an Irish refinery. And it’s not just another market: Reporters found that a majority of the facility’s exports go to Russian smelters. Those smelters sell to a Moscow-based trader which has supplied hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of aluminum to Russian arms manufacturers.The findings quickly became an international scandal. Within hours, they were being discussed in the Irish parliament, while Belgium’s foreign minister said his country would push the EU to toughen its sanctions regime. But while such cases are often described as “sanctions evasion,” that’s not really what’s happening: In this case, there’s nothing to evade. Exporting alumina to Russia is legal, and though the Irish plant is owned by Russian aluminum giant Rusal, the company is not under any blacklist. |
| The economic interest is obvious. In parliament, Ireland’s prime minister began his remarks by stressing the plant’s importance as an employer. Much the same argument was made when scrutiny first fell on the facility in 2022. But this story also demonstrates how these arguments are sustained by a measure of plausible deniability. The United States did briefly sanction Rusal in 2018 because its founder, oligarch Oleg Deripaska, is a close Putin ally. But the sanctions were removed after prices spiked — and Deripaska cut his stake to a minority position. (He now owns 45 percent of Rusal’s parent company, and is still its largest shareholder.) The situation in the EU is similar: Deripaska is sanctioned; Rusal is not.As European member states negotiate the EU’s upcoming sanctions package on Russia, some have argued for sanctions on mineral exports to be sharpened. But the case made by policymakers opposed to sanctions is strengthened because Rusal’s aluminum reaches Russian weapons manufacturers through an intermediary, not by direct sale. That, says Alex Prezanti, a co-founder of the State Capture Accountability Project, is a “classic way” of protecting Rusal — not because it’s sanctions evasion, but because it weakens the consensus for sanctions in the first place.“If Rusal was selling directly to weapons companies, it would be easier to coalesce 27 member states to sanction it,” Prezanti says.Meanwhile, Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, and a renewed Spring offensive in the east, will grind on. |
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