Axios: Iran’s economic shock pile

Posted on March 21, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
Iran’s economic shock pile
 
Illustration of three rocket missiles flying and leaving smoke trails in the shape of a dollar sign.
Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
 
The Iran war’s economic consequences risk outlasting the war, Axios’ Courtenay Brown reports.

Why it matters: Any swift ceasefire or arrangement allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz won’t undo supply shocks that could linger for months — and in some cases, years.📈 

The intrigue: Economists across Wall Street, plus the Fed, are penciling in higher forecasts for inflation this year.

United CEO Scott Kirby said yesterday in a letter to employees: “[O]ur plans assume oil goes to $175/barrel and doesn’t get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027. Honestly, I think there’s a good chance it won’t be that bad, but as you’ll read below, there isn’t much downside for us to preparing for that outcome.”🚢 

What’s happening: The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has already upset the global flow of commodities. This week’s damage to energy facilities in the Gulf could deepen that disruption.

Attacks this week on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iran’s retaliation wiped out 17% of the nation’s natural gas export capacity, Qatar’s top energy official, Saad al-Kaabi, told Reuters.

The damage likely means less natural gas from the region in the long term — with nearly 13 million tons of liquefied natural gas sidelined annually for as long as five years, Kaabi said.Today’s headlines in The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian.

After extensive shipping blockage and infrastructure destruction, the economic reverberations are vast:🌾 

Fertilizer. Natural gas is a key ingredient for fertilizer. About a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer supply — and almost half of the world’s urea, a critical solid nitrogen fertilizer — is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. farmers who didn’t preorder fertilizer might not get enough in time for spring planting, the American Farm Bureau told AP. 

Higher prices for diesel — which powers agriculture equipment — already risk aggravating food inflation.⚙️ 

Helium. The damage to Qatar’s natural gas facilities will also squeeze the production of an important byproduct: helium, a critical input for semiconductor manufacturers racing to keep up with AI-related demand.Share this story.
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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