Axios: Week 1 of the war with Iran cost the U.S. $11.3 billion, the Pentagon told Congress in a closed-door briefing this week. And: Rising oil risk

Posted on March 12, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
Axios AM
By Mike Allen · Mar 12, 2026
☕ Hello, Thursday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,319 words … 5 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Edited by Andrew Pantazi and Bill Kole.🏛️ Situational awareness: 

Week 1 of the war with Iran cost the U.S. $11.3 billion, the Pentagon told Congress in a closed-door briefing this week. The military is reported to have spent $5.6 billion on munitions alone over the war’s first weekend. Today is Day 13. Go deeper.
 
 
1 big thing: Rising oil risk
 
Illustration of President Trump in profile overlooking a map of the Middle East featuring the Strait of Hormuz and an image of an oil pipeline
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images
 
President Trump’s advisers warn the Iran war could drag on longer if the regime succeeds in strangling the Strait of Hormuz and driving oil prices beyond his tolerance, Axios’ Marc Caputo writes.

“The Iranians f*cking around with the Strait makes [Trump] more dug in,” a senior Trump administration official told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump launched Operation Epic Fury to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, navy and regional proxies. But oil markets now are occupying as much of his headspace as battlefield data.

“The president sees the briefings. He sees the numbers. And he feels good about his decision, militarily,” one Trump adviser said.

“Oil is another matter. No one is panicking, but it’s a concern. He’s pulling out the stops. There’s plenty of oil. It’s just getting it on the market that’s the thing.”🔎 

Zoom in: Trump has publicly downplayed both the physical danger of traversing the Strait and the war’s risk to the economy — while taking steps to address both.

Yesterday, he coordinated the largest emergency oil reserve release in history: 400 million barrels globally, including 172 million from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Trump is also discussing plans to supply naval escorts to tankers traversing the Strait and arranging insurance for those vessels — a crucial factor for shippers weighing the risk.

An oil tanker on fire after an apparent Iranian attack in Iraqi waters. Photo: Media Office of Iraqi Ports via Reuters

The urgency became clear yesterday when two oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf.

Videos of a massive blaze in Iraqi waters spread rapidly on social media. Reuters published still images from Iraq’s state-run ports authority that it said show one of the vessels on fire.🧮 

By the numbers: Trump prefers oil at $50 a barrel. The industry prefers a floor of around $60. Despite Trump’s intervention, oil topped $100 per barrel last night and this morning, after spiking as high as $120 earlier this week.

Iran has threatened to push prices to $200 a barrel, which would translate to roughly $5 per gallon at the pump for U.S. drivers, according to some analysts.

Another Trump adviser said: “The president is bullish on the success of the operation thus far — and feels the country will realize he was right, per usual, once it’s over and the objectives are fully met.”

“He genuinely believes, as many in the White House do, that gas prices will fall substantially when this is over — and long enough before the midterms where it will not be a problem.

“The bottom line: “I wouldn’t say he’s looking for an exit strategy,” said a confidant who spoke with Trump by phone. “But he doesn’t want this to last longer than it needs to.”Share this story.⛽ Go deeper: Trump faces limited gas-price options on Iran, by Axios Future of Energy author Ben Geman.
    

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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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