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Axios AM: Blowback gets real
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| Mike Allen Unsubscribe | 10:20 AM (1 hour ago) | ||
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| View in browser PRESENTED BY UNITEDHEALTH GROUP Axios AMBy Mike Allen · Mar 09, 2026 Hello, Monday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,467 words … 5½ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Edited by Andrew Pantazi and Bill Kole. Situational awareness: The Pentagon said a U.S. service member stationed in Saudi Arabia died from injuries sustained in an Iranian attack, bringing the number of American deaths in the war to seven. CENTCOM statement. 1 big thing: Blowback gets real  Data: Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Axios VisualsIn the first week of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran, the economic ripples were looking pretty minimal. But as Week 2 begins, the risks to the global economy are growing much more serious, Axios’ Neil Irwin writes. You can’t decapitate the leadership of a country of 90 million people, with expansive military and intelligence capabilities, in the heart of some of the world’s most economically important supply chains, without a huge cost. Oil skyrocketed 25% overnight, to just under $120 a barrel, fueling worries that higher energy costs will stoke inflation and curb spending by U.S. consumers. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index plunged more than 5%. That’s the highest oil price since about four years ago, when energy prices surged due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Patrick De Haan — a widely cited gas price expert and an analyst for GasBuddy — estimates an 80% chance the national average gas price will hit $4 per gallon in the next month. It’s currently $3.48. Zoom in: As of 5 a.m. ET, a barrel of the global crude oil benchmark was going for about $107 on futures markets, up 15% from Friday and 47% from 10 days ago, before the Iran attack. Brent crude prices approached $120 overnight before receding on reports of coordinated global action to release oil reserves. The risk of a broader economic slump is rising with the disruption to oil supplies. S&P 500 futures are down 1.3% overnight, setting Wall Street up for its third consecutive day of losses. Japan’s Nikkei index was down 5.2% and South Korea’s KOSPI down 6%, reflecting those economies’ more direct dependence on Middle Eastern oil now at risk of a protracted blockade. The odds of a U.S. recession this year spiked to 38% in overnight trading on Polymarket, from 24% at the start of the month. The war has already caused the largest oil disruption in history, taking out roughly 20% of the world’s supply, according to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former George W. Bush energy adviser.  Via Truth SocialBetween the lines: Solid GDP growth is no consolation for higher day-to-day prices, which doomed President Biden’s popularity. If the recent energy price surge is sustained, that will be President Trump’s burden as well.  Headlines in today’s Wall Street Journal, New York Times Reality check: The U.S. economy has proven exceptionally resilient to global shocks — including throughout the Ukraine war, which initially caused an unpleasant spike in prices but not a recession.Share this story. 2.  Scoop: Early U.S.-Israel split  A woman takes a video of smoke rising from a Tehran oil depot after an Israeli strike on Saturday. Photo: Sasan/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty ImagesThis exclusive reporting from Axios’ Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo takes you inside the first major U.S.-Israel rift of the Iran war: Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance — sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies in more than a week of fighting, according to a U.S. official, an Israeli official and another source with knowledge. Why it matters: The U.S. is concerned Israeli strikes on infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime and driving up oil prices. The Israeli air force’s strikes created large fires in Tehran, igniting flames visible for miles and blanketing the capital in heavy smoke. An Israeli military official said the strikes were intended in part to tell Iran to stop targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure.  Behind the scenes: Israeli and U.S. officials said the IDF notified the U.S. military ahead of the strikes. But a U.S. official said that the U.S. military was surprised by how wide-ranging they were.“We don’t think it was a good idea,” a senior U.S. official said. An Israeli official said the U.S. message to Israel was “WTF.”  The big picture: U.S. officials are concerned the footage of burning depots could spook oil markets and push energy prices even higher. “The president doesn’t like the attack. He wants to save the oil. He doesn’t want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices,” a Trump adviser told Axios.Share this story. |
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