The Deep View: The 2028 intelligence crisis, and its antidote.

Posted on February 24, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
The 2028 intelligence crisis, and its antidote.

AI could ruin everything – at least according to one recent report. But don’t base your future plans on it just yet. If the current AI boom succeeds, it could completely crash the global economy, says “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” report, also known as the “CitriniResearch Macro Memo from June 2028,” which has gone viral in the last 24 hours. The authors of the report claim it’s not “AI doomer fan-fiction,” but a look at left-tail risks in AI that are currently going unexplored.

Left-tail risks are a data science term for low-probability, high-impact negative outcomes. So, before we dive into the list of the catastrophic outcomes from this report, keep in mind that these are not predictions, but worst-case scenarios.

Here’s what the report warns against during the 2026-2028 timeframe:

Reflexive AI adoption: Agentic solutions reach widespread enterprise adoption, and companies massively cut white-collar jobs and invest in more AI solutions. 

“Ghost GDP” distortions: Productivity soars on paper, but income shifts from human labor to compute. So while GDP looks strong, consumer spending starts to collapse. 

Intelligence displacement spiral: When white-collar layoffs spread, high earners pull back discretionary spending and draw down their savings. 

Private credit and ARR contagion: AI undercuts the economics of SaaS companies that make up a big chunk of public markets. When recurring revenue erodes, it causes a chain of events that leads to defaults, regulatory scrutiny, and stress to the financial system.

Prime mortgage fragility: Mortgage holders in tech-heavy metros (San Francisco, Seattle, Austin) begin to default on loans, adding further downward pressure on the financial system. 

Policy gap vs. structural shock: Cutting interest rates doesn’t work to stimulate the economy where there’s large-scale labor displacement. Fixing the economy requires a bipartisan structural change to policies, such as AI compute taxes and public claims on massive profits from AI advances — and bipartisanism fails to emerge to fill the policy gap.


It’s wise to consider these worst-case scenarios. Having them in mind can allow leaders, boards of public companies, and public officials to identify early warning signs and act to prevent the worst outcomes. And let’s also keep in mind that there is far more optimistic research on the other end of the spectrum. For example, in its annual 2026 Big Ideas research, ARK Invest forecasted that the convergence of trends that include AI, genomics, robotics and energy will lead to a “step change in real GDP growth” that will result in 7.3% real GDP expansion in 2030. That’s far above the 3.1% forecasted by the IMF, and likely overly-optimistic. The reality is likely somewhere between these two extremes, but they also paint a picture of the uncertainty and the massive risk-versus-reward possibilities engendered by AI.  LINKSAmazon will spend $12 billion on AI data centers in LouisianaOpenAI partners with consulting firms in enterprise pushUber launches vehicle service venture for self-driving carsGoogle reportedly restricts AI Ultra users over OpenClawPentagon, xAI reach a deal for military use of GrokAnthropic lines up over $5 billion for employee share salegpt-realtime-1.5: OpenAI made the latest version of its voice model available in the Realtime API. The model aims to offer “more reliable instruction following, tool calling, and multilingual accuracy,” according to the company. WebSockets: OpenAI also introduced WebSockets in the Responses API to help optimize the speed of AI agents and agentic workflows. Wispr Flow: The AI voice dictation app finally launched on Android, as part of the launch, the company is offering 6 months of Wispr Flow Pro for free. Veo 3.1: Google rolled out new templates for Veo 3.1 in the Gemini app. These help you just select a specific style option to get started. 
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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