Axios: Big Thing: Brink of war

Posted on February 18, 2026 by michelleclarke2015
1 big thing: Brink of war
 



An F/A-18E Super Hornet prepares to launch from the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea late last month. Photo: Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Daniel Kimmelman/U.S. Navy

The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon, Axios’ Barak Ravid writes.

Why it matters: A U.S. military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weekslong campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month’s pinpoint operation in Venezuela, sources say.

The sources noted it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that’s much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.

Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region, and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency.

With the attention of Congress and the public otherwise occupied, there has been little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade.🖼️ 

The big picture: Trump came close to striking Iran in early January over the killing of thousands of protesters by the regime.

Instead, the administration shifted to a two-track approach: nuclear talks paired with a massive military buildup.

By delaying and bringing so much force to bear, Trump has raised expectations for what an operation will look like if a deal can’t be reached.

And right now, a deal doesn’t look likely.

Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for three hours in Geneva yesterday.

While both sides said the talks “made progress,” the gaps are wide, and U.S. officials aren’t optimistic about closing them.

Vice President Vance told Fox News the talks “went well” in some ways, but “in other ways, it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.

“Vance made it clear that while Trump wants a deal, he could determine that diplomacy has “reached its natural end.”A Pentagon photo of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea earlier this month. Photo: Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jesse Monford/U.S. Navy⚓ 

Zoom in: Trump’s armada has grown to include two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets and multiple air defense systems. Some of that firepower is still on its way.

More than 150 U.S. military cargo flights have moved weapons systems and ammunition to the Middle East.

In the past 24 hours, another 50 fighter jets — F-35s, F-22s and F-16s — headed to the region.

Between the lines: Trump’s military and rhetorical buildups make it hard for him to back down without major concessions from Iran on its nuclear program.

It’s not in Trump’s nature, and his advisers don’t view the deployment of all that hardware as a bluff.

With Trump, anything can happen. But all signs point to him pulling the trigger if talks fail.Share this story.
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About michelleclarke2015

Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
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