Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Photo Credit: Ukraine Presidential Press Service
President Trump’s Ukraine Policy: The Art Of The Deal – OpEd
When President Trump was running for election in 2024, he said he’d end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. That hasn’t happened. Lately, he’s called Ukraine President Zelensky a dictator and even blamed him for starting the war with Russia. It seems he’s tilting toward Russia in his attempt to negotiate an end to the war.
President Trump wants a personal victory in that dispute, and for him, a victory would be the end of the war. It matters little to him whether the war ends with Russia pulling out and leaving Ukraine with its old boundaries, or with Russia taking full control of Ukraine, or something in between. He isn’t taking Russia’s side, or Ukraine’s side. He wants a win for himself.
At least some of his recent negative comments about Ukraine were intended to lower Zelensky’s expectations about the war’s outcome. That’s the art of the deal. Push for a hard bargain that gives negotiators much less than they would expect so that you can make concessions to make everyone feel like they got a good deal.
If Putin thinks the war could go on forever, it will put more strain on the Russian economy and cause unrest at home. He may also worry that Russia will have to pull out without gaining land. At the same time, Zelensky may fear that Ukraine could lose all the territory that Russia claims. Because of these concerns, there is a chance for both sides to negotiate a deal that is better than these outcomes.
Meanwhile, President Trump wants to declare a victory by seeing the war end, regardless of its outcome. He has repeatedly stated his goal of ending the war and never stated what he thought would be a just outcome.
From a foreign policy standpoint, President Trump may be leaning toward Russia to strengthen Russia’s ties to the US and weaken the bond between Russia and China. But that may not be realistic, especially because everyone—including President Trump—knows that four years from now, someone else will be residing in the White House.
The big problem with allowing Russia to keep any of the occupied territories is that it sends a message to Putin that he can use the Russian military to take territory from other sovereign nations, but President Trump apparently does not see it this way.
The best outcome from the standpoint of global security would be for NATO to agree that Ukraine can never join in exchange for Russia agreeing to Ukraine’s original boundaries. That may be a tough sell, but President Trump, the deal-maker, could make it appear to be a victory for both sides.
The bottom line: President Trump wants a deal, and when it happens, he will declare it a victory for himself, regardless of the terms of the deal.
- This article was published at The Beacon
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Randall G. Holcombe
Randall G. Holcombe is Research Fellow at The Independent Institute, DeVoe Moore Professor of Economics at Florida State University, past President of the Public Choice Society, and past President of the Society for the Development of Austrian Economics. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Virginia Tech, and has taught at Texas A&M University and Auburn University. Dr. Holcombe is also Senior Fellow at the James Madison Institute and was a member of the Florida Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors.
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