A big picture view on “Guns vs. Butter, 1870–2022” (Marzian and Trebesch 2024)
The session will begin with a brief academic input on new research from the Kiel Institute (Marzian and Trebesch, 2024, “Budgets and Geopolitics”), as a factual backdrop for a “big picture” guns vs. butter debate. Figure 1 is the key chart, based on military and social spending data going back to the 19th century.
We live in an age of “butter” in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US), as Figure 1 shows. On average, the share of military spending in government budgets has fallen to historic lows. At the same time, social spending (health, labor, welfare, education and social affairs) has grown steadily. These spending trends look similar when shown in percent of country GDP rather than as shares of budget.
The data also show a growing disconnect between military spending (at a historic low) and geopolitical risk (at a historic high), particularly in the case of Germany. This can be seen in Figure 2, which combines our data on budgetary spending with data on geopolitical risk from Caldara and Iacoviello (2022). Germany today faces exceptionally high geopolitical risk, at the level of the early 1960s. Compared to the 1960s, however, military spending is very low today, accounting for only about 10% of total spending or 5% of GDP. This is just about a third of what it was in the early 1960s. In sum, we live in dangerous times, but military budgets in the West have not responded to these developments.
Life event that changes all: Horse riding accident in Zimbabwe in 1993, a fractured skull et al including bipolar anxiety, chronic fatigue …. co-morbidities (Nietzche 'He who has the reason why can deal with any how' details my health history from 1993 to date). 17th 2017 August operation for breast cancer (no indications just an appointment came from BreastCheck through the Post). Trinity College Dublin Business Economics and Social Studies (but no degree) 1997-2003; UCD 1997/1998 night classes) essays, projects, writings. Trinity Horizon Programme 1997/98 (Centre for Women Studies Trinity College Dublin/St. Patrick's Foundation (Professor McKeon) EU Horizon funded: research study of 15 women (I was one of this group and it became the cornerstone of my journey to now 2017) over 9 mth period diagnosed with depression and their reintegration into society, with special emphasis on work, arts, further education; Notes from time at Trinity Horizon Project 1997/98; Articles written for Irishhealth.com 2003/2004; St Patricks Foundation monthly lecture notes for a specific period in time; Selection of Poetry including poems written by people I know; Quotations 1998-2017; other writings mainly with theme of social justice under the heading Citizen Journalism Ireland. Letters written to friends about life in Zimbabwe; Family history including Michael Comyn KC, my grandfather, my grandmother's family, the O'Donnellan ffrench Blake-Forsters; Moral wrong: An acrimonious divorce but the real injustice was the Catholic Church granting an annulment – you can read it and make your own judgment, I have mine. Topics I have written about include annual Brain Awareness week, Mashonaland Irish Associataion in Zimbabwe, Suicide (a life sentence to those left behind); Nostalgia: Tara Hill, Co. Meath.
canisgallicus 